Will Arcade Fire win Music Video Grammy with help from Andrew Garfield?

Will important subject matter and star-power help Arcade Fire win Best Music Video at the Grammys? They’re nominated for the first time in the category for “We Exist,” which features “Amazing Spider-Man” star Andrew Garfield as a trans woman facing harassment. The video premiered in May 2014 but didn’t make any impact at last summer’s MTV Video Music Awards. Does that make any difference in the Grammys race?

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Usually no. The Grammys and the VMAs don’t always see eye-to-eye, so while VMA champs like Madonna‘s “Ray of Light” and Eminem‘s “Without Me” have won the Music Video Grammy, several others have been favored by the recording academy despite being mostly or entirely skunked by MTV, like Johnny Cash‘s “God’s Gonna Cut You Down,” Weezer‘s “Pork and Beans,” and the Black Eyed Peas‘ “Boom Boom Pow.”

However, the last four Grammy winners have been major VMAs contenders. Lady Gaga‘s “Bad Romance” (2010) and Rihanna and Calvin Harris‘s “We Found Love” (2012) both won VMAs for Video of the Year, while Adele‘s “Rolling in the Deep” was a Video of the Year nominee and Justin Timberlake and Jay-Z‘s “Suit and Tie” was the VMAs choice for Best Direction.

If that trend continues, it could be good news for three of Arcade Fire’s competitors in this Grammy contest.

Sia‘s “Chandelier” and Pharrell Williams‘s “Happy” were both nominated for Video of the Year at the VMAs. They lost that prize to Miley Cyrus‘s “Wrecking Ball,” which the recording academy didn’t nominate.

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DJ Snake‘s “Turn Down for What” wasn’t up for Video of the Year at the VMAs, but like Timberlake’s “Suit and Tie” last year, it won Best Direction.

The last nominee is “The Golden Age” by Woodkid, featuring Max Richter. Like Arcade Fire, he had no nominations at the 2014 VMAs, but he happens to be the only artist in this category who has a previous Grammy nomination for Best Music Video. He contended for “Run Boy Run” in 2012, but lost to “We Found Love.”

Who do you think will win? Watch all five nominated videos below, then use our drag-and-drop menu below to make your predictions, or click here to make your picks in other top Grammy categories.

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