November could be a good month for country star Luke Bryan, who is up for top honors at both the Country Music Association Awards and the American Music Awards. He’ll have at least one reason to celebrate according to our racetrack odds: we’re expecting him to be CMA’s Entertainer of the Year for the second year in a row.
Bryan gets odds of 9/10 based on support from four out of six of our Editors (those of us who cover awards for Gold Derby year-round), 16 of our Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best predicting last year’s CMA winners) and 60% of all Users who have entered our predictions contest.
Ranked second with odds of 4/1 is Miranda Lambert, who contends for the third time but hasn’t yet won. She’ll pull off the upset according to one Editor, two of our Top 24 Users and 22% of all Users. Lambert would be only the second woman in 15 years to claim this title, following Taylor Swift‘s two victories in 2009 and 2011. Before that you have to go all the way back to 2000 to find another female champ (Dixie Chicks).
Third in line for the win is bestselling country legend Garth Brooks with 15/2 odds. This is his 10th bid for Entertainer of the Year, but his first since 1999. He also happens to be a four-time winner (1991, 1992, 1997, 1998). Will the CMAs reward his comeback? He’s backed by one Editor, four of our Top 24 Users and 9% of all Users.
Trailing in fourth place with 10/1 odds is first-time nominee Eric Church, who picked up five total bids this year. Two of our Top 24 Users and only 6% of all Users think he’ll take the prize, so it seems he’s at a disadvantage, but not as much as CMA veteran Kenny Chesney, who has won four times (2004, 2006-2008) out of nine previous nominations just like Brooks but is forecast by a mere 3% of Users, resulting in odds of 16/1.
Click on the chart below for our complete prediction stats:
Do you think Bryan will clean up? Click here to predict the CMAs, or use our drag-and-drop menu at the bottom of this post.
Make your own CMA picks now to the right or at the bottom of this post, and you could win a $100 Amazon gift card as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s CMA winners).
Last year, our Editors (Gold Derby’s in-house team of writers and prognosticators), Top 24 Users and all Gold Derby Users tied with an accuracy rate of 66.67% when it came to predicting the CMA winners. (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)
Which group will be victorious this year? User Dehlavi got the top score predicting the CMAs last year with a whopping 89% accuracy rate. As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.
Photo: Luke Bryan. Credit: Amy Harris/REX