‘Dancing with the Stars’ upset: Alexa PenaVega is perfect … AND eliminated

dancing with the stars dwts alexa penavega carlos penavega mark ballas witney carson

Monday night’s “Dancing With the Stars” ended with one of the season’s biggest surprises: Alexa PenaVega, who led our racetrack odds to win the mirror ball trophy at the beginning of the season, was instead eliminated in sixth place. Making the result especially bittersweet was the fact that Alexa also topped the judges’ leaderboard for the third time this season — with a pair of perfect scores no less. Did she really deserve to go?

CLICK HERE to make your own ‘Dancing with the Stars’ predix & win prizes

The result could very easily have been different. Tamar Braxton had a tough week that ended with her being hospitalized with pneumonia right before the live show was set to begin. She was still in the hospital when it was time for her first dance, so the judges had to score her dress rehearsal performance instead, but she arrived just in time for her second routine, a “showstopper” team-up with Nick Carter.

If she had missed her second dance, she would have forfeited, just like Kim Zolciak Biermann, who was forced to withdraw after falling ill earlier this season. So in a way her triumphant return sealed Alexa’s fate.

That final result took the vast majority of our contest entrants by surprise. Only 6% of us got that right, so the other 94% of us were as shocked as Alexa and her visibly heartbroken husband Carlos PenaVega were at the end of the night. More than half of predictors (56%) thought Alek Skarlatos would be eliminated instead; our users keep betting on the military man’s ouster, but he has proven untouchable despite his low scores in recent weeks.

Skarlatos got the lowest score yet again, as predicted by 80% of our users, which makes this the fourth time in a row he’ll head into the next round on the bottom of the leaderboard. Is he bulletproof at this point, or is he dancing on borrowed time?

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Most of our contest players also predicted the night’s highest scoring dancer, which may have been a little easier because there was a tie for the best judges’ marks. Both Alexa PenaVega and Bindi Irwin had perfect nights, scoring 30 out of 30 for their individual routines and then another 30 points for their “Chicago”-inspired showstopper team-up. For Irwin, it was her sixth time on top, so it’s no surprise that 60% of us predicted her dominant evening. Another 13% correctly predicted Alexa’s ascent.

Even though the majority of us were stumped by Alexa’s ouster, three users did manage to score 100% correct predictions for the week: Alifarqi89Karen Wood, and Jeannag. Of those, Alifarqi89 had the highest overall points total (11,260) and takes the top spot on our predictions leaderboard.

How did Alifarqi89 pull off that high score? By placing 500 points on Alexa’s elimination when she had 22/1 odds, resulting in an impressive 11,000-point payout. Click the chart below for this week’s complete results:

dancing with the stars dwts chart

Keep your point bets in mind when making your predictions: coming out on top doesn’t just mean answering the week’s questions correctly. You also have to use your three big bets (one of 500 points and two of 200 points) strategically to score the most game points. If you bet on a long shot who pulls off an upset, you can really rack up the points. As we use those point totals to break ties when more than one user tops our leaderboard with the same number of correct predictions (as happened this week), don’t take them for granted.

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There were no major shakeups on our overall leaderboard for the season to date. WiltedYouth retains sole possession of the top spot. Thanks to his strong forecasts Monday night he holds on with 18 out of 27 correct predictions (67%) for the season to date. But Karen Wood’s perfect week puts her a step closer to the lead with 17 out of 27 (63%).

Who do you think will be eliminated next week? Refer to this week’s scores below before making your predictions:

Bindi Irwin – 30 + 30 = 60
Alexa PenaVega – 30 + 30 = 60 (ELIMINATED)
Nick Carter – 28 + 27 = 55
Carlos PenaVega – 27 + 24 = 51
Tamar Braxton – 22 + 27 = 49
Alek Skarlatos – 24 + 24 = 48

In our “Dancing with the Stars” predictions center, you get to answer the following questions each week:

Which celebrity will be eliminated?

Who will receive the HIGHEST score from the judges?

Who will receive the LOWEST score from the judges?

Who will win ‘Dancing with the Stars’?

Just log into your Gold Derby account (or you can register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google) and then start casting your votes. Users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts throughout the week, just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choices. And every time someone logs their predictions, the racetrack odds of the contestants are automatically updated.

Who do you think WILL be eliminated next? Make your predictions

At the end of each week, the eligible user with the highest prediction accuracy and most points will win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, so it’s beneficial to keep coming back often and making/updating your predictions.

Which dancers do you like (and dislike) the most? Sound off in the comments section below, and join the discussion in Gold Derby’s reality TV forum.

Photos: Mark Ballas, Alexa PenaVega, Carlos PenaVega and Witney Carson, “Dancing with the Stars.” Credit: ABC

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