‘Dancing with the Stars’: For Carlos PenaVega, perfection wasn’t enough to survive

dancing with the stars dwts carlos pena vega witney carson alexa penavega

Dancing With the Stars” is down to its final three contestants, but it wasn’t who our users were expecting. For the fourth time in five weeks, the consensus was that military hero Alek Skarlatos would be eliminated, and once again he survived anyway. He advances to Tuesday night’s finale along with Bindi Irwin and Nick Carter. That meant the odd man out was Carlos PenaVega, who managed to outlast his wife Alexa PenaVega (who was eliminated in sixth place two weeks ago) but couldn’t make it to the finish line.

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Only 23% of us got that question right, while almost half of us (49%) missed it by picking Skarlatos instead. But our predictors did much better forecasting the night’s high score thanks to a three-way tie at the top of the judges’ leaderboard. Irwin, Carter and PenaVega all had perfect nights, scoring 30 out of 30 for both of their dances: a judges’-choice routine followed by a freestyle number.

72% of us predicted Irwin’s high score (2/5 odds), but only 11% predicted Carter (17/2 odds) and only 7% predicted PenaVega (12/1 odds). It was Irwin’s eighth time getting the top judges’ marks, so it’s no wonder most of our users backed her, but if you bet big on Carter or PenaVega, you got the benefit of much more favorable odds.

The night’s low score was no surprise. Except for the Semi-Finals, when Carter unexpectedly stumbled, Skarlatos has underperformed for weeks compared to the rest of the field, so an overwhelming 81% of us correctly predicted he’d land at the bottom yet again (2/9 odds). But it wasn’t for a lack of trying. He got straight 9s for his judges’-choice rumba (he lost credit due to inadequate hip action), but like his competitors he scored a perfect 30 for his freestyle dance. Unfortunately, in a night chock-full of perfect scores, Skarlatos is forced to settle for last place going into Tuesday night’s finale.

Even though fewer than a quarter of users anticipated PenaVega’s elimination, an impressive 19 of us scored 100% predicting Monday’s show. Out of all those, LSKILDUM had the highest overall points total (50,596.36) and thus takes the top spot on our predictions leaderboard. This is the second time he’s topped our predictions this season. He previously came out on top for “Switch-Up” night in week five.

How did he pull off that high score? By placing 500 points on Carter’s high score at a point when that result had 100/1 odds, which gave him a massive 50,000-point payout. He wagered another 200 on PenaVega’s ouster at 14/5 odds, which earned him another 560 points. Click the chart below for this week’s complete results:

dancing with the stars dwts chart

Keep your point bets in mind when making your predictions: coming out on top doesn’t just mean answering the week’s questions correctly. You also have to use your three big bets (one of 500 points and two of 200 points) strategically to score the most game points. If you bet on a long shot who pulls off an upset, you can really rack up the points. As we use those point totals to break ties when more than one user tops our leaderboard with the same number of correct predictions (as happened this week), don’t take them for granted.

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There were no major shakeups on our overall leaderboard for the season to date. WiltedYouth retains sole possession of the top spot. Thanks to his strong forecasts Monday night (he was one of this week’s 19 perfect predictors), he holds on with 23 out of 33 correct predictions (70%) for the season to date. Karen Wood holds steady in second place with 22 out of 33 (67%). Denton Davidson remains in third with 20 out of 33 (60%).

Since only three correct answers separate first from third, Tuesday night’s finale could change this season’s contest outcome since you can predict five results for Tuesday night: who will win, who will finish second, who will finish third, who will receive the highest score in the 24-Hour Fusion Challenge (when the final three teams combine two dance styles for a routine prepared in a single day) and who will receive the lowest score in the Fusion Challenge.

Who do you think will win the mirror ball trophy? Refer to this week’s scores below before making your predictions:

Nick Carter – 30 + 30 = 60
Bindi Irwin – 30 + 30 = 60
Carlos PenaVega – 30 + 30 = 60 (ELIMINATED)
Alek Skarlatos – 27 + 30 = 57

In our “Dancing with the Stars” predictions center, you get to answer the following questions for Tuesday night’s finale episode:

Who will win ‘Dancing with the Stars’?

Who will finish SECOND on ‘Dancing with the Stars’?

Who will finish THIRD on ‘Dancing with the Stars’?

Who will receive the HIGHEST score in the 24-Hour Fusion Challenge?

Who will receive the LOWEST score in the 24-Hour Fusion Challenge?

Just log into your Gold Derby account (or you can register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google) and then start casting your votes. Users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you log-in and give us your predictions.

At the end of Tuesday night’s show, the eligible user with the highest prediction accuracy and most points will win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, so it’s beneficial to keep coming back often and making/updating your predictions. We’ll give another $100 prize to the user with the top score predicting the entire season.

Photos: Witney Carson, Carlos PenaVega and Alexa PenaVega, “Dancing with the Stars.” Credit: ABC

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