Emmy predictions slugfest: Will Best Comedy Actor go to Jeffrey Tambor, Will Forte, William H. Macy or …

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Who will win the Emmy for Best Comedy Actor? Gold Derby editors Rob Licuria, Matt Noble and Riley Chow are convinced that Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”) will win his first-ever trophy, while Marcus James Dixon thinks Will Forte (“The Last Man on Earth”) could upset on Emmy night. Watch our new video slugfest at the bottom of this post.

Click here to see the updated list of all 2015 Emmy episode submissions

At last year’s Emmy Awards, Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”) tied the all-time record as Best Comedy Actor with his fourth win. Surprisingly, he was snubbed this year but four of last year’s competitors are back: Don Cheadle (“House of Lies”), Louis C.K. (“Louie”), Matt LeBlanc (“Episodes”), and William H. Macy (“Shameless”). Newcomers for freshman shows are Anthony Anderson (“Black-ish”), Forte and Tambor.

After losing six supporting bids for “The Larry Sanders Show” and “Arrested Development,” Tambor moves into the lead category for the first time. On “Transparent” he plays Maura Pfefferman, a transgender woman in Los Angeles discovering her new life. For the second episode (“The Letting Go”), Maura embraces her new journey, but nothing about life as a woman is easy — making friends, finding a new community, and above all, coming out to her children.
Gold Derby odds to win: 1/5

This is the 11th career Emmy nomination for Macy, who has won twice before in the movie/miniseries categories (acting and writing for “Door to Door,” 2003). On “Shameless” he plays alcoholic, deadbeat father Frank Gallagher, a role which earned him a SAG Award earlier this year. On this fourth episode of the fifth season (“A Night to Remem – Wait, What?”), Frank tries to retrace his steps after an epic bender to find what he did with his six-figure insurance settlement.
Gold Derby odds to win: 25/1

Forte has two Emmy nominations this year, this one and another for writing the pilot episode of “The Last Man on Earth.” “Alive in Tucson” is also his choice in this race, where a deadly virus leaves Phil Miller thinking he is the last man on earth. He travels across the country looking for survivors and then heads back home to Tucson, Arizona.
Gold Derby odds to win: 25/1

Despite many year working on television, this is the first Emmy nomination for Anderson. He stars on “Black-ish” as Andre “Dre” Johnson, an advertising executive and family man in the suburbs. His episode submission is the 18th of the first season (“Sex, Lies and Vasectomies”), offering a plot where his wife Rainbow learns from her colleague that Dre never had the vasectomy a few years back that he was supposedly scheduled, so she decides to see if he’ll come clean and tell the truth.
Gold Derby odds to win: 50/1

C.K. is a six-time Emmy champ, with all of his past wins in writing categories. On the “Louie” episode submitted to voters (“Bobby’s House”), he goes to a wake with his brother and gets beat up on the street by a woman. Pamela gives Louie a makeover to mask his injuries so he can perform on stage.
Gold Derby odds to win: 50/1

LeBlanc has yet to win at the Emmys depsite six bids. He plays a fictionalized and crazier version of himself on “Episodes,” the former star of top show “Friends.” His selection is the fifth episode of the fourth season (“Episode 405”), in which Morning shows Matt their sex tape from years ago because Matt has no memory of it. Matt then accepts a lucrative offer to attend a dictator’s birthday party.
Gold Derby odds to win: 100/1

Cheadle is 0 for seven at the Emmys to date. He plays Marty Kaan on “House of Lies,” a deceitful business consultant who recently spent time in prison. His episode submission is the finale of the fourth season (“It’s a Box Inside a Box”), and it features Marty on the verge of making K&A one of the biggest players in the business, if he can persuade his employees to stay.
Gold Derby odds to win: 100/1

See Dixon’s Emmy predictions here, Licuria’s here, Noble’s here and Chow’s here. Compare their Emmy predix to the overall combined Gold Derby odds and rankings here.

Experts Emmy predictions: All 32 categories

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Last year our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby’s Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year’s Emmys). Our Users scored  51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

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