Emmy predictions slugfest: Will Drama Supporting Actor go to Jonathan Banks, Michael Kelly or …

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Who will win the Emmy for Best Drama Supporting Actor? Gold Derby editors Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria and Charles Bright think Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul”) is in the lead position to win, but that Michael Kelly (“House of Cards”) could pull off a major upset on Emmy night. Watch our new video slugfest at the bottom of this post.

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Last year’s winner Aaron Paul (“Breaking Bad”) is not back to defend his Best Drama Supporting Actor title. Of his competitors from last year, Jim Carter (“Downton Abbey”) and Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”) return. Former category nominees Banks and Alan Cumming (“The Good Wife”) are also in contention as are first-time nominees Kelly and Ben Mendelsohn (“Bloodline”).

Banks is the first person to be nominated in this category for multiple roles. His previous two bids were for “Wiseguy” (1989) and “Breaking Bad” (2013). On the latter, he played the same character of Mike Ehrmantraut that he now portrays on this prequel series. His episode is the sixth of the debut season (“Five-0”) in which Mike’s tragic past comes back to haunt him, and he’s forced to seek help from an unusual source.
Gold Derby odds to win: 4/7

Dinklage won this category on his first try in 2011 and has received Emmy nominations for all five seasons. He plays royal family member Tyrion Lannister on the HBO fantasy epic. On this eighth episode (“Hardhome”), Jorah and Tyrion are brought before Daenerys, who asks Tyrion why he should be allowed to live. He explains the process of King’s Landing politics and is allowed a role as her advisor.
Gold Derby odds to win: 11/2

Mendelsohn is also a first-time nominee and co-stars on the freshman Netflix drama as Danny Rayburn. His character is the oldest son of a Florida Keys family who returns home and quickly starts causing turmoil. In his episode (“Part 12”), past and present problems make Danny a threat to the Rayburns, while Sally confronts her family.
Gold Derby odds to win: 9/1

Kelly earned his first career Emmy nomination this year for his role as former vice-presidential chief of staff Doug Stamper. On the first episode of the third season on Netflix, Doug tries to deal with his injuries through extensive rehab.
Gold Derby odds to win: 14/1

This year marks the third Emmy nomination for Cumming as campaign strategist Eli Gold on the CBS legal series. His other bids were in the guest category for 2010 and in this supporting race for 2011. In this 17th episode of the sixth season (“Undisclosed Recipients”), the partners at Florrick/Agos/Lockhart argue over the future of the firm. Meanwhile, the firm becomes a victim of a cyber hack after it represents a movie producer whose work is pirated on a peer-to-peer sharing site.
Gold Derby odds to win: 50/1

Carter now has his fourth consecutive nomination for the British period program airing on PBS. He plays Charles Carson, the stoic butler to the aristocratic Crawley family. His episode is the final one of the fifth season, also known as “A Moorland Holiday” special. Much of the episode is spent in Northumberland, but back at the mansion, Carson is not happy that Mrs. Hughes pulls out of a real estate deal with him. He ends the season by proposing marriage to her.
Gold Derby odds to win: 100/1

See Dixon’s Emmy predictions here, Licuria’s here and Bright’s here. Compare their Emmy predix to the overall combined Gold Derby odds and rankings here.

Experts Emmy predictions: All 32 categories

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Last year our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby’s Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year’s Emmys). Our Users scored  51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

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