With Emmy voting ending on Friday (Aug. 28), the four groups who make predictions at Gold Derby — a dozen experts, our seven Editors, the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did best last year) and thousands of readers just like you — have updated their forecasts of the winners in all the top races. We combine those predictions to calculate the odds of winning for each nominee (see the full slate of odds HERE). Below, an in-depth look at the current leaders in the key categories (click on each title to see the votes of each group).
Best Drama Series
“Game of Thrones” has a slight edge to finally take this top prize on its fifth consecutive nomination. After all, that proved to be the magic number for “Breaking Bad,” “24” and “The Sopranos.” With our Editors, Top 24 and all Users predicting a win for his HBO fantasy hit, it has leading odds of 10/9. However, as our Experts overwhelmingly favor a record fifth win for “Mad Men,” this AMC period piece has odds of 6/5 to win a record fifth time. Remember, while “The Sopranos” had to wait till season five to win its first Emmy, it also prevailed for its last.
Best Drama Actor
Jon Hamm is tipped to finally break the curse that has beset the cast of “Mad Men.” Collectively, they have lost 34 Emmy races, with Hamm going down to defeat in this category for seven years running. He has leading odds of 4/11 to finally take home the trophy. However, Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul“) could pull of an upset in a category famous for that with his new AMC series, a spin-off of Emmy darling Breaking Bad.” He has odds of 13/2.
Best Drama Actress
It looks like we will finally see another barrier broken with an African American finally winning this award. Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder“) is the frontrunner for the freshman season of this ABC crime drama with leading odds of 4/9. However, Taraji P. Henson could ride the wave of acclaim for her scene-stealing turn in the FOX breakout hit “Empire.” She has odds of 6/1.
Best Comedy Series
“Veep” remains ahead with all four groups making predictions and that across-the-board support gives it even odds to finally win this award on its fourth straight bid. Our prongosticators are mindful that this is the first year that this HBO political satire is nominated for both writing and directing. The first-year dramedy “Transparent” has odds of 13/5 to win for its delicate handling of a sensitive subject matter. And five-time champ “Modern Family” has odds of 15/2 to break its tie with “Frasier” for the most wins in this category.
Best Comedy Actor
Jeffrey Tambor is all but certain to add an Emmy to a mantle already crowded with other trophies for his role on “Transparent.” He has overwhelming odds of 1/5. His closest competition, albeit with odds of 16/1, is Will Forte who headlines the freshman hit “The Last Man on Earth.”
Best Comedy Actress
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”) is likely to win this award for a fourth year running. She is ranked first by all four of our groups and has odds of 4/5. She first won this Emmy race back in 2006 for “New Adventures of Old Christine.” Should she prevail this year, she will be tied with Mary Tyler Moore and Candice Bergen with a record five wins in this category. However, keep an eye on two funny ladies named Amys. Amy Poehler, who contends for the final seaon of “Parks and Recreation,” has odds of 5/1 to finally win an Emmy on her 13th career nomination. And new “It” girl Amy Schumer, who contends for the third season of her Comedy Central sketch comedy show “Inside Amy Schumer,” has odds of 8/1.
What do you think will win Best Drama Series? Make your predictions for that category to the right or below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Average Gold Derby users just like YOU turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.
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Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby’s Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year’s Emmys). Our Users scored 51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.) Which group will be victorious this year?