With Emmy voting ending on Friday (Aug. 28), the four groups who make predictions at Gold Derby — a dozen experts, our seven Editors, the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did best last year) and thousands of readers just like you — have been busy updating their forecasts of the winners in all the top races. We combine all of these to calculate the odds of winning for each nominee (see the full slate of odds HERE). Below, we take a closer look at the current leaders in the key categories (click on each title to see the votes of each group).
Best Comedy Series
“Veep” is ahead with all four groups; this cross-the-board support gives it leading odds of 10/11 to finally win this top Emmy on its fourth consecutive bid. This year marks the first time that this HBO political satire reaped bids for both writing and directing. Coming on strong is freshman contender “Transparent.” This Amazon Prime series is riding a wave of goodwill about its subject matter, the transgender population, and has odds of 12/5. In third place is five-time champ “Modern Family” which has odds of 6/1 to break its tie with “Frasier” for the most wins in this category. It would be a mistake to count out this ABC single-camera comedy which has taken home the trophy in previous years when support was thought to be on the wane.
Best Comedy Actress
Julia Louis-Dreyfus is on track to win for a fourth year running for playing a politico on “Veep.” She is ranked first by all four of our groups and has odds of 2/3. Add in that 2006 trophy for “New Adventures of Old Christine” and she would be up there with Mary Tyler Moore and Candice Bergen with a record five wins in this category. However, tied with her among our Top 24 Users is perennial nominee Amy Poehler for the final seaon of “Parks and Recreation.” Those voters, combined with those of the other groups, give her odds of 9/2 to finally win an Emmy on her 13th career nomination. And don’t count out rising star Amy Schumer, who contends for the third season of her Comedy Central sketch comedy show “Inside Amy Schumer.” Collectively, she has odds of 13/2.
Best Comedy Actor
Jeffrey Tambor has been racking up wins all year long for his role on “Transparent” and has leading odds of 2/11. Will Forte headlines another freshman hit, “The Last Man on Earth“, and could be poised to pull off an upset.
Best Drama Series
“Game of Thrones” could finally win with its fifth straight bid. That proved to be the magic number for “Breaking Bad,” “24” and “The Sopranos.” Our editors, Top 24 and all Users are predicting this, which gives this HBO fantasy hit odds of 6/5. However, our Experts overwhelmingly favor a record fifth win for “Mad Men” and that support also gives this AMC period piece odds of 6/5 for its final season. While “The Sopranos” had to wait till season five to win its first Emmy, it also prevailed for its last.
Best Drama Actress
Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder“) is strongly favored to be the first African American to win this award. She is the frontrunner for the freshman season of this ABC mystery with all four groups and has leading odds of 8/13. However, another African American, Taraji P. Henson, could well win for her scene-stealing turn in the FOX breakout hit “Empire.” She has odds of 11/2. And hoping that third time is the charm is Robin Wright (“House of Cards“) with odds of 10/1.
Best Drama Actor
Jon Hamm is predicted to be the cast member of “Mad Men” to finally break the curse and be the first to win an Emmy. He has the votes of most of us and this gives him leading odds of 3/10 to finally take home the trophy. But don’t rule out Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul“) who could ride the critical acclaim for this “Breaking Bad” spin-off to a surprise win; he has odds of 8/1.
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What do you think will win Best Comedy Series? Make your predictions for that category below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Average Gold Derby users just like YOU turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.