For its first four seasons “Mad Men” went undefeated for Best Drama Series at the Emmys. That haul tied it with three other classic series — “Hill Street Blues,” “L.A. Law” and “The West Wing” — for most wins in this category. And while the AMC period drama hasn’t won this top prize since 2011, the Emmy experts polled by Gold Derby have it out front with the best odds (8/15) to prevail on Sept. 20 and set a new record.
Of our 17 pundits, a dozen are backing “Mad Men” while five bet on “Game of Thrones” (12/5 odds). See the experts’ odds in all top Emmy races. See how each expert ranks the nominees according to likelihood of winning.
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The Emmyologists casting a vote for “Mad Men” are: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Eric Deggans (NPR), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Joy Eng (TV Guide), John Griffiths (Us Weekly), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Richard Lawson (Vanity Fair), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Ken Tucker (Yahoo), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) and Jarett Wiselman (Buzzfeed).
Meanwhile, Michael Ausiello (TV Line), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly) and Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine) are touting “Game of Thrones,” the HBO fantasy series that leads with 24 nominations this year.
“Orange is the New Black” ranks third with 50/1 odds, while the other four – “Better Call Saul,” “Downton Abbey,” “Homeland” and “House of Cards” – are all at 100/1 odds.
It must be noted, however, that the Experts are going it alone by forecasting “Mad Men” for the win. Our other three groups – Editors, Users and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year’s winners) – all give the advantage to “Game of Thrones,” and “Thrones” gets the best odds overall (10/9) when you combine all four groups’ picks.
Experts Emmy predictions: All 32 categories
Click on the chart above to see how all four groups’ predictions for Best Drama Series stack up. Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% which tied them with both Gold Derby’s Editors and the Top 24 Users. Our Users scored 51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.) Which group will be victorious this year?
Our Experts have made predictions in 32 categories in all. Appropriately, they’re also betting on “Mad Men” in the race for Best Drama Actor, where star Jon Hamm is heavily favored to finally win with 2/9 odds to win for the very first time after seven straight losses. More history will be made in the Drama Actress race, where Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder”) gets 8/15 odds to become the first African American ever to win that category.
On the comedy side of the ledger, “Veep” will break “Modern Family‘s” five-year winning streak for Best Comedy Series. Nine Experts are backing the HBO political satire compared to six who say it will be Amazon’s breakthrough streaming series “Transparent.” Our Editors, Users and Top 24 Users agree on that outcome.
All four groups also concur on both Best Comedy Actor, where Jeffrey Tambor is the overwhelming favorite to prevail for the first time as a transgender woman in “Transparent,” and Best Comedy Actress, where Julia Louis-Dreyfus is forecast to win for the fourth year in a row for “Veep.”
Below are the Experts’ odds for the top six Emmy categories. Click on the category title for a more in-depth look at each race. And click here to see the Experts’ predictions in all 32 categories.
BEST DRAMA SERIES
“Mad Men” – 8/15
“Game of Thrones” – 12/5
“Orange is the New Black” – 50/1
“Better Call Saul” – 100/1
“House of Cards” – 100/1
“Homeland” – 100/1
“Downton Abbey” – 100/1
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men” – 2/9
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul” – 13/2
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards” – 50/1
Kyle Chandler, “Bloodline” – 50/1
Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom” – 100/1
Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan” – 100/1
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder” – 8/15
Taraji P. Henson, “Empire” – 9/2
Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black” – 14/1
Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men” – 14/1
Robin Wright, “House of Cards” – 50/1
Claire Danes, “Homeland” – 100/1
BEST COMEDY SERIES
“Veep” – 21/20
“Transparent” – 2/1
“Modern Family” – 14/1
“Parks and Recreation” – 16/1
“Silicon Valley” – 100/1
“Louie” – 100/1
“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” – 100/1
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent” – 2/11
William H. Macy, “Shameless” – 14/1
Louis C.K., “Louie” – 50/1
Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth” – 50/1
Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish” – 50/1
Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes” – 100/1
Don Cheadle, “House of Lies” – 100/1
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep” – 8/15
Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation” – 13/2
Amy Schumer, “Inside Amy Schumer” – 14/1
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” – 14/1
Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie” – 14/1
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie” – 100/1
As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.
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