Emmys experts predict upheaval in drama, reruns in comedy categories

Our first seven Emmy Experts have weighed in with their predictions for this year’s awards, which will be handed out on Sept. 20 with nominations announced on July 16.

Six of our Emmyologists — Robert Bianco (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Ken Tucker (Yahoo) and Gold Derby’s Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan — are in agreement that “Modern Family” will win Best Comedy Series for a record sixth year running; Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post) opts for “Veep.”

However, there is disagreement as to what will take Best Drama Series. Three of our Experts — Birnbaum, Eng and Jacobs — expect that the Emmys will give a farewell hug to four-time past champ “Mad Men.” Another three — O’Neil, Sheehan, Tucker — are predicting that “House of Cards” will win for the first time. And Bianco forecasts a victory for “Game of Thrones” after four straight losses. 

Join the red-hot discussion about the Emmys
going on right now in our fiery forums

On the comedy performer side, we all predict last year’s funny ladies — Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep“) and Allison Janney (“Mom“) — will repeat. Likewise, we are united behind star Jeffrey Tambor for the first season of “Transparent.”

For Comedy Supporting Actor, Bianco, Sheehan and Tucker give the edge to two-time champ Ty Burrell (“Modern Family”) while Eng and O’Neil go with newcomer Tituss Burgess (“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt“), Birnbaum backs 2013 winner Tony Hale (“Veep”) and Jacobs likes the looks of Andre Braugher (“Brooklyn Nine-Nine“). 

All of our Experts but one predict that Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder“) will win Drama Actress; Bianco expects Olivia Colman to prevail for season two of “Broadchurch.”

The Drama Actor race is shaping up to be a squeaker with Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”) having the votes of four Experts (Eng, O’Neil, Sheehan, Tucker) while perennial also-ran Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”) has the support of Bianco, Birnbaum and Jacobs. 

Five of us forecast 2012 Drama Supporting Actress champ Maggie Smith (“Downton Abbey“) to pick up a bookend while Birnbaum and Jacobs forecast first wins for Christina Hendricks (“Mad Men”) and Christine Baranski (“The Good Wife“) respectively. Likewise, although four of us are predicting 2011 Drama Supporting Actor Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”) to win once more, Birnbaum and Eng are expecting this race to go to Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul“). 

And it looks like HBO has locks with “Bessie” for Best TV Movie, “Olive Kitteridge” for Best Limited Series and its stars Frances McDormand and Richard Jenkins.

When it came to predicting last year’s Emmy nominations, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 74.64%. They were edged out by Gold Derby users just like YOU who scored 74.78%. However, both groups were bested by the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who’d done the best at predicting the 2013 Emmy nominations) at 78.55% and Gold Derby’s Editors with 77.68%.

Which group will be victorious this year?

As some of our users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

Make your own Emmys picks now starting with Best Drama Series to the right or at the bottom of this post.

Best predictions will win $1,000 (be sure to read our contest rules). And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. 

Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Emmys last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. 

Register/log in to your Gold Derby account so you can also compete to predict the Tonys, “The Voice,” “Survivor,” “The Amazing Race,” “Dancing with the Stars, “American Idol” and more.

More News from GoldDerby