Emmy nominations are less than a week — make your last-minute predictions now! — so let’s take a moment to analyze this year’s race for Best Comedy Actress. As a refresher, last year we correctly predicted five of the six nominees in this category. We missed only Melissa McCarthy (“Mike and Molly”), who we had in eighth place, with Anna Faris (“Mom”) in our sixth slot.
As you can see from the chart above, we are predicting that just three of these leading ladies will return to the race this year: defending three-time champ Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”), five-time also-ran Amy Poehler (“Parks and Recreation”) and 2010 winner Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie”).
Do you agree that these three are locks for nominations on July 16? And which of the others in our Top 10 are the strongest possibilities and which are on the bubble?
Scroll down to see a breakdown of the leading contenders, according to our exclusive Emmy odds that are derived from predictions made by Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who did the best predicting last year’s Emmys line-up) and All Users.
And then be sure to make your own predictions and be in with a chance to win prizes, bragging rights and a place of honor in next year’s Top 24 Users.
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”)
Overall odds to win: 10/3
JLD is a no-brainer for a nomination and could even win again according to Gold Derby’s odds-makers. She’s triumphed three times in a row as Vice President Selina Meyer on the HBO political comedy, so what’s stopping Emmy voters from having her go four-for-four? Absolutely nothin’.
Amy Poehler (“Parks and Recreation”)
Overall odds to win: 11/2
Over her career, Poehler has been nominated a whopping 13 times (plus twice at the Daytime Emmys) and so far hasn’t claimed a trophy of her own. The good news? Gold Derby’s combined odds have her in a comfortable margin to receive a nomination for her show’s final season. The bad news? She’s predicted to lose to Louis-Dreyfus yet again.
Edie Falco (“Nurse Jackie”)
Overall odds of winning: 8/1
Falco ended her seven-season role as Nurse Jackie Peyton just last month, meaning her performance is still fresh in voters’ minds. From “The Sopranos” to “Nurse Jackie,” Falco has always been an awards darling, so there’s no reason to think she won’t be nominated for her final hurrah.
Lily Tomlin (“Grace and Frankie”)
Overall odds to win: 10/1
Of the two “Grace and Frankie” stars, Tomlin has the better chance of earning a bid. Perhaps that’s because her character is more outlandish and over-the-top comedic than her co-lead Fonda? If Tomlin gets nominated, watch out — she has some great episodes to submit to Emmy judges.
Ellie Kemper (“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”)
Overall odds to win: 12/1
TV’s newest sweetheart has the great fortune of being on a hot new network (Netflix) and on a show from a pair of Emmy-favorite producers (Tina Fey and Robert Carlock). Sure, Kemper was snubbed for her supporting turn on “The Office,” but now that she’s entering the big leagues as the show’s hilarious and endearing lead, you’d be wise not to bet against her.
Gina Rodriguez (“Jane the Virgin”)
Overall odds to win: 12/1
If Rodriguez manages to receive a nomination, she’ll be making Emmys history. No actress from the CW has ever been nominated before. That’s a lot of pressure. Can she pull it off? With a recent Golden Globe win behind her and nominations from the Critics’ Choice TV Awards and the Television Critics Association, it’s looking more and more likely.
Lisa Kudrow (“The Comeback”)
Overall odds to win: 14/1
Voters loved Kudrow in Season 1 of “The Comeback” in 2006 enough to nominate her, however, she lost to Louis-Dreyfus for “The New Adventures of Old Christine.” Even though “The Comeback” took a nine-year hiatus, Kudrow and the show returned in top form last year on HBO. Will Kudrow make an Emmys comeback of her own?
Amy Schumer (“Inside Amy Schumer”)
Overall odds to win: 14/1
This one’s a question mark. The last leading lady to receive a nomination for a sketch show was Sarah Silverman (“The Sarah Silverman Program”) in 2009. Can Schumer count on the success of her show as well as her well-received new film “Trainwreck” to push her over the edge with Emmy voters? She also won the Critics’ Choice TV Award, don’t forget.
Jane Fonda (“Grace and Frankie”)
Overall odds to win: 16/1
Strangely, Fonda is much further down our list than her co-lead Tomlin. Perhaps that’s because she plays the straight woman on the show who’s more subdued and less emotional? Whatever the case, Fonda could very well be a double Emmy nominee this year, for both “Grace and Frankie” and “The Newsroom.”
Melissa McCarthy (“Mike and Molly”)
Overall odds to win: 33/1
Emmy pundits have overlooked McCarthy in the past. Are they doing it again? Don’t forget, McCarthy won this race in 2011 and had a great shot at repeating last year thanks to a socko episode in which her character mourned the loss of her father. Another ace up McCarthy’s sleeve could be her turn in the comedy film “Spy,” which garnered great reviews and box office.
Make all your Emmy predictions and you could win a place of honor on our leaderboard, a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys line-up), and one of three contest prizes: $500 for first place, $300 for second place, and $200 for third place. Prizes will be bestowed as gift certificates to be redeemed at Amazon. See our contest rules for more info.
Average Gold Derby users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.
The Top 24 Users did the best at predicting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) when competing against Gold Derby’s Editors (77.68%), all Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%). Which group will be victorious this year?
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