Another top Emmys expert — Eric Deggans (NPR) — has made his predictions for this year’s awards, which will be handed out on Sept. 20 with nominations announced on July 16. See all of Deggan’s predictions here.
He joins 11 other Emmyologists: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Lynn Elber (AP), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Matt Roush (TV Guide), Ken Tucker (Yahoo), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) and me.
Deggans makes it a lucky seven to say that “Mad Men” will win Best Drama Series for a record fifth time; that support gives this AMC staple leading odds of 4/1. Three of us cast our ballots for “House of Cards,” which now has odds of 11/2 while “Game of Thrones” is at 5/1 with Bianco backing that bid. Whipp is backing “Empire” (15/2).
And he is the ninth Expert to predict that “Mad Men” star Jon Hamm will finally win Drama Actor. That support gives him leading odds of 10/3 while Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards”) has the votes of three Experts and odds of 4/1.
Deggans is one of eight of us to predict Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder“) will win Drama Actress; that collective backing gives her odds of 10/3 to become the first African American to win this category. Two Experts expect that it will be Critics’ Choice winner Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”) who breaks this barrier; she now has odds of 4/1. Rice is predicting Golden Globe champ Robin Wright (“House of Cards”) to win here too; she has odds of 5/1. And Bianco expects Olivia Colman (50/1) to pull off an upset for season two of “Broadchurch.”
He makes it an even half dozen Experts to predict that 2012 Drama Supporting Actress champ Maggie Smith (“Downton Abbey“) will pick up a bookend and that gives her leading odds of 4/1. Four forecast a first win for Christina Hendricks (“Mad Men”) who is 9/2 while Jacobs does the same for Christine Baranski (“The Good Wife“) at 5/1. Rice likes the looks of Lena Headey (“Game of Thrones”) who is at 14/1 while Whipp is forecasting an upset by Lorraine Toussaint (“Orange is the New Block”) at 33/1.
Deggans is the eighth Expert to predict 2011 Drama Supporting Actor Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”) will win again; he has odds of 10/3. Birnbaum, Eng and Whipp expect this race to go to Critics’ Choice winner Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul“) who has odds of 5/1 while Roush backs Jon Voight (“Ray Donovan”) who is at 11/2.
He is the tenth Expert to predict that “Modern Family” will win Best Comedy Series for a record sixth year running; that gives it leading odds of 4/1. Jacobs opts for “Veep” (5/1) while Tucker is touting “Transparent” (11/2).
And Deggans joins 10 of us in predicting that Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep“) will tie two Emmy records this year with her fourth straight Comedy Actress win (Helen Hunt did that with “Mad About You”) and her fifth overall (Candice Bergen has as many for “Murphy Brown” while Mary Tyler Moore has two for “The Dick Van Dyke Show” and three for her own). Louis-Dreyfus, who also won this award in 2006 for “The New Adventures of Old Christine,” has leading odds of 3/1. Whipp is predicting Golden Globes champ Gina Rodriguez (“Jane the Virgin“) who has odds of 6/1 to pull off an upset.
While ten of us tout Jeffrey Tambor to win Comedy Actor for the first season of “Transparent,” giving him odds of 10/3, Deggans joins Rice in predicting that four-time victor Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory“) will win despite odds of 4/1.
He is the 11th Expert to predict that Allison Janney (“Mom“) will repeat as Comedy Supporting Actress. That support translates into leading odds of 10/3. With Whipp casting his vote for “Saturday Night Live” featured player Kate McKinnon, she has odds of 10/1.
Comedy Supporting Actor is turning into a real race. Deggans joins Birnbaum, Elber and Roush in backing 2013 winner Tony Hale (“Veep”) while five of us give the the edge to two-time champ Ty Burrell (“Modern Family”); they are tied at 4/1. Jacobs and Whipp like the looks of Andre Braugher (“Brooklyn Nine-Nine“) who now has odds of 11/2. Eng is going with newcomer Tituss Burgess (“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt“) who sits at 10/1.
When it came to predicting last year’s Emmy nominations, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 74.64%. They were edged out by Gold Derby users just like YOU who scored 74.78%. However, both groups were bested by the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who’d done the best at predicting the 2013 Emmy nominations) at 78.55% and Gold Derby’s Editors with 77.68%.
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