“I think we have a lot more true locks in Drama Series,” says editor Chris Beachum, assessing the turbulent race for Best Comedy Series in our recent Emmys slugfest (watch below). “I would say my locks are ‘Veep‘ and ‘Modern Family‘ … Those are really my only two.”
I disagree somewhat, explaining that “I’m a little bit more confident … about the top five or six. That’s not because they’re all so incredibly strong, but because in this comedy field I’m looking at my number six and seven slots and trying to figure out, if not them, then what else?”
The TV academy is expanding the field for Best Drama and Best Comedy to seven nominees – more if the 2% rule takes effect. So what borderline contenders should you predict before nominations are announced on July 16?
I expect last year’s five returning shows to be nominated again: in addition to “Modern Family” and “Veep,” I predict “The Big Bang Theory,” “Silicon Valley” and “Louie” to be back in the running, but “I’m not as sold on ‘Big Bang Theory,'” says Beachum. “When something gets to its eighth season, you typically see a lot of fall-off.”
He adds, “I don’t have ‘Louie’ predicted right now; this season aired and I heard barely a whisper about it.”
Though we clash on how safe many of these contenders are, Beachum and I actually agree on six out of seven likely nominees. We’re both anticipating returns for “Big Bang,” “Modern Family,” “Silicon” and “Veep” as well as first-year breakthroughs for “Transparent” and “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt.”
But while “Louie” is my seventh pick, Beachum has “‘Black-ish‘ in right now. I think it can really make a push there.” That’s certainly within the realm of possibility. It has been a ratings hit following “Modern Family” in ABC’s Wednesday night lineup, its affluent characters give it snob appeal and its themes of race and class in America are timely.
But “with first year shows it’s hard to know,” I argue. It’s uncertain how voters will respond to freshman shows like “Black-ish” and “Kimmy Schmidt.” I worry, for instance, that “Kimmy Schmidt” “doesn’t have the snob appeal of taking place in the TV industry like ‘30 Rock‘ had, but it has the snob appeal of [co-creator] Tina Fey, which might be plenty enough for this show to get in.”
Watch below to also find out who we’re betting on in the hotly contested comedy acting races. Click here to see our Editors’ complete Emmy predictions.
Of the four groups making predictions at Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users did the best forecasting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) compared to the Editors (77.68%), All Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%).
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