Will ‘Transparent’ topple ‘Modern Family’ at Emmys like ‘Ally McBeal’ did to ‘Frasier’?

After winning Best Comedy Series for a record-tying five years in a row, “Modern Family” again seems unstoppable in the Emmys race, but all good things must come to an end. No show has ever won six. The last show that tried was “Frasier,” which originally set the record of five wins from 1994-1998, but was then toppled by “Ally McBeal” in 1999. Could that be a good omen for “Transparent“?

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“Ally McBeal” entered the Best Comedy races at a time when TV “dramedies” were still a relatively new concept; when it premiered, its Emmy competitors were unambiguous 30-minute laffers. But after losing to “Frasier” in 1998  in its first season, “McBeal” struck back in its sophomore year, finally dethroning the seemingly indomitable champ.

Like “Ally McBeal,” “Transparent” is a dramedy competing in a field that usually prefers laugh-out-loud funny. But if Emmy voters are finally looking for an alternative to “Modern Family,” “Transparent” could be well-positioned to upset.

When you combine the predictions of our Experts, Editors, Users, and Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who racked up the best scores among the thousands predicting last year’s Emmy nominations), “Transparent” ranks third with 6/1 odds. However, when you consider just our Top 24, its chances are slightly better.

The Top 24 give “Transparent” 11/2 odds. All of them expect it to be nominated, and three of them are going against the grain by predicting it to win: Aquila_Henry, Max and mjroberts97.

Of those fearless predictors, it’s worth noting that Aquila_Henry finished third out of all users predicting last year’s nominations and Max finished fifth, so we should take their premonitions seriously.

One Expert agrees with them: Ken Tucker (Yahoo). And hundreds of all Users also place the Amazon Prime streaming series out front.

But for now at least, “Modern Family” remains the Emmy frontrunner with 4/1 odds, supported by 10 of our 12 Experts, four of our seven Editors, and 18 of our Top 24. Will that change if “Modern” loses ground in its nominations haul this year? And would “Transparent” be the show to take advantage if it’s vulnerable?

Of the four groups making predictions at Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users did the best forecasting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) compared to the Editors (77.68%), All Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%). 

Who do you think will win Best Comedy Series? Make your prediction below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Average Gold Derby users just like YOU turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

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Make all of your Emmy predictions and you could win a place of honor on our leaderboard, a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys line-up), and one of three contest prizes: $500 for first place, $300 for second place, and $200 for third place. Prizes will be bestowed as gift certificates to be redeemed at Amazon. See our contest rules for more info.

Below, use our drag-and-drop menu to predict whether “Transparent” will win Best Comedy, and watch our recent Editors’ Slugfest debating the current state of this year’s Comedy Series field.

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