FX’s Emmy-winning miniseries “Fargo” received the most nominations of any television program at this year’s Golden Globes. But even though it’s not leading in our predictions center in any of the categories it’s nominated in, there is still a good possibility that “Fargo” can pull off an upset at the Globes.
In the top category of Best TV Movie/Limited Series, “Fargo” is ranked second (9/4 odds) behind “True Detective” (5/6 odds). For Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actor, Matthew McConaughey for “True Detective” is way out front with odds of 1/5 leaving “Fargo” stars Billy Bob Thornton (12/1 odds) and Martin Freeman (50/1 odds) in second and fourth place respectively. Allison Tolman is ranked second for Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actress with 25/1 odds, behind Frances McDormand for “Olive Kitteridge” with 2/13 odds. In the Best TV Supporting Actor category, Colin Hanks is in third place with 16/1 odds of prevailing, trailing behind Matt Bomer (“The Normal Heart“) in first with 6/5 odds and Bill Murray (“Olive Kitteridge”) in second with 5/4 odds of winning.
Now that may not sound very promising but there are several other things to consider. One is that the Globes love to spread the wealth and in recent years have liked to give shows with several nominations something to take home. We saw this last year when Robin Wright pulled off a huge upset in TV Drama Actress for “House of Cards.” So it may not be that farfetched to think that if McConaughey wins the TV Movie/Mini Actor trophy, the Globes will want to reward “Fargo” in the TV Movie/Mini category and spread the wealth.
Other factors that could lead to “Fargo” victories include the worldwide popularity that Freeman is enjoying with success in “The Hobbit” and “Sherlock” as well as the fact that Tolman managed to break in to the lead category after regularly competing for supporting prizes. Remember, this is a group of less than 100 people determining these winners so there could be a unified sense with some voters of the strategy in how they reward programs across the board.
If “Fargo” does go winless, it would be the first time in 12 years that the top nominated television program at the Globes would go winless. The last time this occurred was in 2002 and the two shows that tied for the most nominations, “The West Wing” and “Will & Grace” with five each, both went home empty-handed.
“The West Wing” lost the TV Drama Series and TV Drama Actor prize to “The Shield” with Michael Chiklis beating out Martin Sheen. Allison Janney lost the TV Drama Actress prize to Edie Falco for “The Sopranos.” “Will & Grace” lost the TV Comedy Series contest to “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” Eric McCormack lost the TV Comedy Actor trophy to Tony Shalhoub for “Monk” and Debra Messing was defeated in TV Comedy Actress by Jennifer Aniston for “Friends.” Both Bradley Whitford and John Spencer of “The West Wing” and Sean Hayes of “Will & Grace” lost the TV Supporting Actor category to Donald Sutherland for “Path to War.” Megan Mullally also lost the TV Supporting Actress race to Kim Cattrall for “Sex and the City.”
“Will & Grace” was no stranger to this as they had suffered the exact same fate in the previous two years at the Globes, losing the same categories each time. Prior to that, “ER” went zero for five for two years in a row. In 1995 the show lost TV Drama Series to “Party of Five,” both Anthony Edwards and George Clooney lost TV Drama Actor to Jimmy Smits for “NYPD Blue,” Sherry Stringfield lost TV Drama Actress to Jane Seymour for “Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman” and Julianna Margulies lost TV Supporting Actress to Shirley Knight for “Indictment: The McMartin Trial.” The following year the show lost TV Drama Series to “The X-Files,” Edwards and Clooney both lost the same category to David Duchovny for “The X-Files,” Stringfield lost to Gillian Anderson for “The X-Files,” and Noah Wyle lost TV Supporting Actor to Ian McKellen for “Rasputin: Dark Servant of Destiny.”
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