The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will announce their nominees for the Golden Globe Awards this Thursday, December 10, at 8:00 a.m. ET for both film and television honors. Last year Gold Derby racetrack odds had accuracy rates of 85% in film and 68% in television with a few long shot contenders earning unexpected nominations.
On the film side, Christoph Waltz (Comedy/Musical Actor for “Big Eyes”), Quvenzhane Wallis (Comedy/Musical Actress for “Annie”) and Wes Anderson (Director for “The Grand Budapest Hotel”) all earned bids despite getting 100/1 odds at the time. Meanwhile, in the television categories, “Homeland” (Drama Series) and both “Girls” and “Jane the Virgin” (Comedy/Musical Series) also overcame 100/1 odds to score nominations, while Joanne Froggatt (“Downton Abbey”) had 100/1 odds in the TV Supporting Actress field – and she went on to win that award!
With this in mind, I fully expect to see a few surprises on Thursday morning, and so should you. But what are the best bets for nominations among the long shot contenders? Below is a quick take on the contenders that may offer up the biggest shockers — all of which are at 100/1 odds as of this writing.
Best Film Comedy/Musical
Given the roller coaster of confusion as to what is and isn’t considered a comedy by the HFPA, this genre feels the most open to surprises. “Tangerine” jumped into the race a few weeks ago with notices in the major fields at the Independent Spirit Awards and could grab a Globes spot in similar fashion to last year’s “Pride,” which was at 40/1 odds before its nomination. “Our Brand Is Crisis” was at one point expected to contend, but has fallen off the radar — could HFPA put it back on the map? And we shouldn’t rule out “Sisters” either, considering it stars the Golden Globes’ standout former hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler.
Best Film Drama
“Mad Max: Fury Road” picked up a lot of a steam in their awards campaign over the last week thanks to strong showings at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and National Board of Review awards. “Mad Max” is similar to last year’s “Grand Budapest Hotel” in that it is a frontrunner in many tech categories but is being underestimated in above-the-line races. Though the Golden Globes don’t give out awards in the technical fields, we shouldn’t be at all surprised to see the post-apocalyptic film begin its march to the Oscars with major nominations from the HFPA. Other long shot nominations could come for “Creed,” “Sicario” or “Straight Outta Compton,” which have also gained traction recently.
Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress
With most of this year’s biggest contenders in the Drama field, the women vying for a spot in the Comedy/Musical category are up against much leaner competition. Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”) seems like the only true safe bet, which means four spots are up for grabs.
Bel Powley (“Diary of a Teenage Girl”) beat Cate Blanchett (“Carol”) and Brie Larson (“Room”) at the Gotham Awards, so she could surprise here, too. And don’t rule out the star power of Anne Hathaway (“The Intern”), Fey, Poehler, or Kristen Wiig (“Welcome to Me”).
Best TV Drama Series
Last year Showtime’s “The Affair” surprised when it took home both Best Drama Series and Best Drama Actress (Ruth Wilson) honors for its first season. Despite those wins, many are counting it out this year, but could it repeat? If new series have an advantage then it shouldn’t be too shocking to see buzzworthy titles like Netflix’s “Bloodline” or Amazon’s “The Man in the High Castle” on the nominations list. HBO’s “The Leftovers” and Showtime’s “Penny Dreadful” both put forth solid second seasons this year and after missing out last year on their first tries, they could wind up surprising on their second.
Best TV Comedy/Musical Series
After winning Best Comedy Actress last year, Gina Rodriguez is once again considered a strong contender for her role on “Jane the Virgin,” but the show itself is well outside our predictions for a second nomination in the top category. Given its increased notoriety over the last year, including nominations at this year’s Satellite Awards, could it sneak back into the race? The HFPA could also throw support behind the new Ryan Murphy series “Scream Queens” like they did for the first season of “Glee,” which won the category in 2010.
Best TV Drama Actor
If the HFPA shows love for their series in the Best Drama category, both Justin Theroux (“The Leftovers”) and Kyle Chandler (“Bloodline”) could go along for the ride with nominations here, but with so many veterans in the race there may not be room. Those veterans who could pull off long-shot nominations include 2011 nominee Hugh Bonneville for the penultimate season of “Downton Abbey” and 2013 contender Michael Sheen returning for “Masters of Sex” after missing out on a second nomination for the role last year.
Make your Golden Globe film predictions to the right or below beginning with Best Film Drama and change them later as often as you wish.
If you reap the top score forecasting the Golden Globe film nominations, you can win a $100 Amazon gift certificate. See contest rules.
And you’ll earn a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Golden Globe film nominations).
“Sisters” photo credit: Universal Pictures
“Mad Max: Fury Road” photo credit: Moviestore/REX
“The Leftovers” photo credit: HBO
“Scream Queens” photo credit: FOX