The Golden Globes are unique among film awards in that they divide Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress into separate races for dramas and for comedies/musicals. That gives Oscar hopefuls two chances to prevail on the road to Oscar. It also gives the Golden Globes two chances to anoint the eventual Oscar champs in top categories and establish themselves as a necessary stop on the awards campaign trail.
According to the combined predictions of Expert film journalists we’ve polled, along with Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Golden Globe nominations and the more than 1000 total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors, “Spotlight” is in first place to win Best Drama Picture with leading 17/10 odds.
But watch out for “The Revenant,” which ranks second with 9/2 odds. The revenge drama is directed by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, who won Oscars for Best Picture and Best Director for “Birdman” but lost both of those categories at the Globes.
Though “The Revenant” isn’t forecast to win Best Drama Picture, its star Leonardo DiCaprio gets leading 7/4 odds to take Best Drama Actor. Though DiCaprio is still awaiting his first victory at the Oscars, he’s been victorious at the Golden Globes before. He has won twice out of 10 previous noms: Best Drama Actor for “The Aviator” (2004) and Best Comedy/Musical Actor for “The Wolf of Wall Street” (2013).
DiCaprio is being challenged by Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs“), who ranks second with 4/1 odds. This would be his third Globe nomination, following a bid in this category for “Shame” (2011) and another for Best Film Supporting Actor for “12 Years a Slave” (2013). But he has yet to win.
They both face a strong challenge from the defending champion in this category and the defending champ at the Oscars: Eddie Redmayne, who prevailed last year for “The Theory of Everything” and now ranks third with 5/1 odds for his performance as a transgender woman in “The Danish Girl.”
Brie Larson (“Room“) is the Oscar frontrunner for Best Actress, and she’s the Golden Globe frontrunner too. We give her leading 19/10 odds to win Best Drama Actress. It would be the first nomination and win for the 26-year-old breakout star.
Larson faces tough competition from Cate Blanchett (“Carol”) with 10/3 odds. She has won three Globes out of eight previous nominations: Best Drama Actress for “Elizabeth” (1998) and “Blue Jasmine” (2013), and Best Film Supporting Actress for “I’m Not There” (2007).
Third in line with 5/1 odds is Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”). Though the Irish actress is only 21-years-old, she’s already a Golden Globe nominee: she earned one previous bid for Best Film Supporting Actress for “Atonement” in 2007, which she lost to Blanchett.
Other top contenders for Best Film Drama Actress: Rounding out our predictions are two women who are being campaigned in the supporting category at most awards but have been declared leads by the Globes: Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”) with 9/1 odds and Rooney Mara (“Carol”) with 10/1 odds. SEE MORE
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“Spotlight” photo credit: Open Road Films
“The Revenant” photo credit: Moviestore/REX
“Room” photo credit: A24 Films