Grammy advantage in Record of the Year for chart-topping Mark Ronson & Bruno Mars (‘Uptown Funk’)?

mark ronson bruno mars uptown funk grammys

With the recent release of Billboard’s year-end list of the top 100 singles of the year, we see the nominees for Record of the Year once again line up with some of the year’s biggest chart-toppers.

Four out of this year’s five nominees are on this year’s list, with “Uptown Funk” by Mark Ronson featuring Bruno Mars taking the #1 spot. “Thinking Out Loud” by Ed Sheeran came in at #2, followed by “Blank Space” by Taylor Swift at #7 and “Can’t Feel My Face” by The Weeknd at #12. “Really Love” by D’Angelo and The Vanguard did not chart on the Hot 100 this year.

Subscribe to Gold Derby Breaking News Alerts & Experts’ Latest Oscar Predictions

The highest charting song has won Record of the Year 16 times out of the 57 past ceremonies (28% of the time). Nine of those winners were #1 on the year-end chart: “Nel Blu Depinto Di Blu (Volare)” by Domenico Modugno (1958), “Theme from ‘A Summer Place'” by Percy Faith (1960), “Bridge Over Troubled Water” by Simon & Garfunkel (1970), “The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face” by Roberta Flack (1972), “Love Will Keep us Together” by Captain & Tennille (1975), “Bette Davis Eyes” by Kim Carnes (1981), “I Will Always Love You” by Whitney Houston (1993), “Rolling in the Deep” by Adele (2011) and “Somebody That I Used to Know” by Gotye featuring Kimbra (2012).

While this might bode well for “Uptown Funk,” those nine wins represent only 43% of the year-end number ones to get nominated for Record of the Year. An additional 12 songs that were year-end #1 singles lost the category: “I Want to Hold Your Hand” (1964) and “Hey Jude” (1968) by The Beatles, “Joy to the World” by Three Dog Night (1971), “Every Breath You Take” by The Police (1983), “That’s What Friends Are For” by Dionne Warwick & Friends (1986), “(Everything I Do) I Do it For You” by Bryan Adams (1991), “Gangsta’s Paradise” by Coolio featuring LV (1995), “Believe” by Cher (1999), “How You Remind Me” by Nickelback (2002), “Yeah!” by Usher featuring Ludacris & Lil’ Jon (2004), “We Belong Together” by Mariah Carey (2005) and “Irreplaceable” by Beyonce (2007).

The nine other Grammy winners that were the highest charting among the nominees were: “Mack the Knife” by Bobby Darin in 1959 (#2), “Moon River” by Henry Mancini in 1961 (#60 the following year), “Days of Wine and Roses” by Henry Mancini in 1963 (#48), “Aquarius/Let the Sunshine In” by the 5th Dimension in 1969 (#2), “What’s Love Got to Do With It” by Tina Turner in 1984 (#2), “Wind Beneath My Wings” by Bette Midler in 1989 (#7) and “Need You Now” by Lady Antebellum in 2010 (#2).

But “Uptown Funk” is still in a good position, having the top position in our predictions center with 21/20 odds of victory.

The second highest charting song, “Thinking Out Loud,” joins seven other songs (12% of winners) that have prevailed here: “Strangers in the Night” by Frank Sinatra in 1966 (#15), “It’s Too Late” by Carole King in 1971 (#3), “Killing Me Softly With His Song” by Roberta Flack (#3), “Just the Way You Are” by Billy Joel in 1978 (#17), “What a Fool Believes” by the Doobie Brothers in 1979 (#19), “Tears in Heaven” by Eric Clapton in 1992 (#6) and “All I Wanna Do” by Sheryl Crow in 1994 (#34).

Could this give Sheeran a boost? “Thinking Out Loud” is currently in fourth place in our predictions with 16/1 odds, so it certainly doesn’t hurt.

LL Cool J returns as Grammy Awards host for fifth year in a row

The third highest charting song, “Blank Space,” joins 10 previous winners (18%) who have triumphed in that position: “Mrs. Robinson” by Simon & Garfunkel in 1968 (#9), “Hotel California” by the Eagles in 1977 (#19), “Sailing” by Christopher Cross in 1980 (#32), “Rosanna” by Toto in 1982 (#14), “Beat It” by Michael Jackson in 1983 (#5), “We Are the World” by USA for Africa in 1985 (#20), “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” by Bobby McFerrin in 1988 (#37), “Another Day in Paradise” by Phil Collins in 1990 (#7), “Kiss From a Rose” by Seal in 1995 (#4) and “My Heart Will Go On” by Celine Dion in 1998 (#13).

Swift is currently in second place according to our predictions (13/2 odds) and with complementary nominations for Album and Song of the Year, she could be a real threat in this lineup.

This year’s lowest charting song, “Can’t Feel My Face” by The Weeknd, would join a significant amount of other Record of the Year winners that have been the lowest charting of their fellow nominees. Nine champs (16%) have been in that position: “The Girl from Ipanema” by Astrud Gilberto and Stan Getz in 1964 (#51), “Up, Up and Away” by the 5th Dimension in 1967 (#47), “I Honestly Love You” by Olivia Newton-John in 1974 (#97), “This Masquerade” by George Benson in 1976 (#69), “Smooth” by Santana featuring Rob Thomas in 1999 (#19), “Beautiful Day” by U2 in 2000 (#75 the following year), “Don’t Know Why” by Norah Jones in 2002 (#97 the following year), “Clocks” by Coldplay in 2003 (#81) and “Rehab” by Amy Winehouse in 2007 (#74).

But The Weeknd is currently in third place according to our predictions (14/1 odds), so his position might not hurt him after all.

Even though D’Angelo and The Vanguard are in last place in our prediction center (22/1 odds) and failed to chart this year, there’s still room for hope. Nine past winners of Record of the Year (16%) never charted on the year-end Hot 100 at all: “I Left My Heart in San Francisco” by Tony Bennett (1962), “A Taste of Honey” by Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass (1965), “Graceland” by Paul Simon (1987), “Unforgettable” by Natalie Cole with Nat King Cole (1991), “Walk On” by U2 (2001), “Here We Go Again” by Ray Charles with Norah Jones (2004), “Not Ready to Make Nice” by the Dixie Chicks (2006), “Please Read the Letter” by Alison Krauss and Robert Plant (2008) and last year’s winner, “Stay With Me (Darkchild Version)” by Sam Smith.

The six remaining winners of Record of the Year (11%) finished fourth in their nominee group without being the lowest charting song: “Higher Love” by Steve Winwood in 1986 (#20), “Change the World” by Eric Clapton in 1996 (#19), “Sunny Came Home” by Shawn Colvin in 1997 (#39), “Boulevard of Broken Dreams” by Green Day in 2005 (#7), “Use Somebody” by Kings of Leon in 2009 (#14) and “Get Lucky” by Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams and Nile Rodgers (#14).

Dish all of this year’s awards races in our red-hot forums with Hollywood insiders

Do you think Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars have the advantage because they have the biggest hit? Or could Swift or Sheeran come from behind to claim this year’s prize?

Make your Grammy predictions beginning with Record of the Year to the right or below. You can also predict the New Artist, Album, and Song categories with many more to be added soon. Just log into your Gold Derby account (or you can register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google) and then start casting your votes.

You’ll compete to win a $100 Amazon gift certificate as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Grammy nominations). Be sure to read our contest rules.

Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts, just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice.

Bruno Mars photo credit: David Fisher/REX

Mark Ronson photo credit: Paul Hampartsoumian/REX

More News from GoldDerby