Will Amy Schumer pull off Emmy upsets for Comedy Actress and Variety Sketch Series?

When the TV academy announced that it was splitting Best Variety Series into talk and sketch categories, “Saturday Night Live” was the presumptive favorite in the latter, having been the only such show to earn Variety Series bids in recent years. However, Comedy Central’s “Inside Amy Schumer” is coming on strong, peaking at just the right time. 

It’s airing new episodes close to the June voting period. And Amy Schumer‘s star is on the rise in Hollywood. She wrote and stars in Judd Apatow‘s new film, “Trainwreck,” and just won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Comedy Actress. Are we underestimating her in both the series and acting races at the Emmys? 

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“SNL” is the most awarded program in Emmys history with 45 victories to date. This NBC late-night staple just celebrated its 40th anniversary this year, which may be part of the reason it gets odds of 3/1 to win the inaugural Variety Sketch race. These leading odds are based on support from 10 of 11 Experts and 17 of our Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who racked up the best scores among the thousands predicting last year’s Emmy nominations).

But the race is much closer if you consider the predictions of our seven Editors. Yes, four of us pick “SNL,” giving it 10/3 odds. However,  three of us —  Marcus DixonRob Licuria, and me — say Schumer has the “Inside” track. And all of us say her show will be nominated, which makes it one of only four we unanimously agree on, along with “SNL,” “Portlandia” and “Key and Peele.” (Click on the names of our Experts, Editors, and Users to see all of their predictions, including their respective rankings.)

As of this writing, three of our Top 24 also predict “Inside Amy Schumer” to prevail: cnmem10, mjroberts97 and TV12. While the only Expert picking it tp win is Glenn Whipp (LA Times), the other 10 all rank it right behind “SNL” in second place. All of this support is enough to give it odds of 4/1 to pull off an upset. 

So most of us concur that Schumer is at least a serious threat to win Best Variety Sketch Series, but what about Best Comedy Actress? This year, the TV academy allowed variety performers to enter either as lead or supporting, after previously restricting them to the latter categories. Schumer was one of the only actors to take them up on the offer (“Portlandia’s” Fred Armisen and Carrie Brownstein and “Key and Peele’s” Keegan Michael Key and Jordan Peele decided to stay put in supporting). Will this gamble pay off for the breakthrough star?

She’s more of an underdog in that contest, ranking ninth with odds of 20/1 based on the combined predictions of Experts, Editors and Users. Again, it’s we Editors who are bullish on Schumer. None of us are yet predicting her to win, but five out of seven of us think she will be nominated. And that support is good enough for sixth place in our rankings with 9/1 odds. Compare that to our Experts, who give her odds of only 33/1. That is based on just three who think she will be nominated: Whipp, Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine) and Gold Derby’s own Paul Sheehan.

Should we pay attention to this trio? Quite possibly. Consider that Sheehan had the second highest score among Experts predicting last year’s Emmy nominations (74%), and he tied with the top score among ALL users predicting last year’s winner (66%).

Currently leading the Comedy Actress contest is, once again, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, who has gone undefeated for the last three years in a row as Selina Meyer in HBO’s “Veep.” She leads our combined predictions with 10/3 odds based on support from 10 of 11 Experts, six of seven Editors, 19 of our Top 24 Users and the majority of All Users.

Of the four groups making predictions at Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users did the best forecasting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) compared to the Editors (77.68%), All Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%). 

Who do you think will win Best Comedy Actress? Make your prediction below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Average Gold Derby users just like YOU turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

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