Oscar predictions update: Leonardo DiCaprio (‘The Revenant’) overtakes Michael Fassbender (‘Steve Jobs’)

Leonardo DiCaprio The Revenant Michael Fassbender Steve Jobs Matt Damon The Martian Oscar 13579086

Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant“) finally recaptured the lead in the Best Actor Oscar race from Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs“). This five-time Oscar also-ran started off this awards season far out in front for his performance as a frontiersman bent on revenge in Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu‘s revisionist Western. First to overtake him was Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl“), then Johnny Depp (“Black Mass“) and finally Fassbender who by early October had a lead among our experts of 11 to 4 over Leo.

DiCaprio has rallied and now has the backing of 11 of the 22 experts at Gold Derby (Oscarwatchers at Yahoo, USA Today, Entertainment Weekly, etc.). That’s up by one from last week and boosts his odds of winning to 3-to-1 (from 10-to-3). 

Five weeks ago, Matt Damon didn’t even make the top five for his performance in the blockbuster sci-fi epic “The Martian.” Today, with his film continuing to score at the box office, Damon is sitting solidly in fourth. While he doesn’t have any first-place votes, we are ranking him higher on our ballots and he now has odds of 15-to-2 to pick up a bookend to his 1998 Oscar for scripting “Good Will Hunting.”  

Fassbender wowed with his portayal of Apple’s patron saint and jumped into first place back in mid-September before peaking in early October. Since then he has lost three of his supporters with the most recent of those being Edward Douglas (Coming Soon) who just switched to DiCaprio. Fassbender’s odds of winning have slid from 23/10 to 3/1. 

To blame: Danny Boyle‘s crackling biopic stalled at the box office when it wide on Oct. 23. That’s caused some of our pundits to rethink their predictions.   

See the Oscar predictions of the 22 experts in 16 top categories. See latest racetrack odds.

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