Experts’ Oscar predictions: Michael Keaton (‘Spotlight’) zooms ahead of Idris Elba (‘Beasts of No Nation’)

Michael Keaton (“Spotlight“) just zoomed ahead of previous frontrunner Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation“) in the race for Best Supporting Actor, according to the experts at Gold Derby. Keaton has seven pundits picking him to prevail. That is up from just four one week ago and puts him in the lead with 4-to-1 odds.

His backers: Tim Gray (Variety), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Michael Musto (Out), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Jenelle Riley (Variety) and Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood). Of these Oscarologists, Khan switched from Elba, Musto from Joel Edgerton (“Black Mass”) and Riley from Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies). And while Mantz came onboard our pudnits panel and chose Keaton, Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) switched from Keaton to Jacob Tremblay (“Room”). 

If Keaton triumphs for playing tough-talking editor Walter “Robby” Robinson in Tom McCarthy‘s docudrama about the Boston Globe investigation into pedophile priests, it will mark his Oscar revenge. Last year he lost his Best Actor bid (for “Birdman”) to Eddie Redmayne (“Theory of Everything”).

As you can see from the above comparison of what we were thinking a week ago compared to today, Elba, who plays a recruiter of child soldiers in Cary Fukunaga‘s unflinching drama set against the backdrop of a civil war in an unnamed African country, had seven pundits behind him just seven days ago.

Now he has five: Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo), Chris Rosen (EW), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Brian Truitt (USA Today). This Golden Globe champ has 9-to-2 odds to win on his first Oscar nomination. Besides Khan, Elba also lost the support of Edward Douglas (Coming Soon) who switched to Keaton’s co-star Mark Ruffalo. (Click on the image above to explore these trends in-depth by selecting various dates in the two calendars.)

While Rylance lost his sole support, he remains ahead of Ruffalo because of how he is ranked on our ballots. This three-time Tony champ has odds of 7-to-1 to win an Oscar for playing a spy in this Cold War thriller.  

Ruffalo, who portrays scandal-busting newspaperman Michael Renzedes, adds Douglas’ vote to that of Kevin Polowy (Yahoo) and Keith Simanton (IMDB). He now has odds of 15-to-2 to win after two previous losses in this race. 

Tom Hardy (“The Revenant“), who at one time was ranked first, holds on to fifth place with the continued backing of Gold Derby’s Thelma Adams and Jack Mathews as well as Susan Wloszxcyna ( That translates into odds of 10-to-1 to win with his first bid.

Spotlight” continues to sit atop our chart for Best Picture as it has since it swept through the Telluride, Venice and Toronto filmfests. This Open Road release is out on Nov. 7. Still unseen is “The Revenant,” in which Hardy plays a hunter in the Dakota Territory who abandons a frontiersman (Leonardo DiCaprio) after a bear attack. This follow-up from “Birdman” triple Oscar winner Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is due out at Christmas. 

Oscar Experts: Odds in top nine races

Who do you think will win Best Supporting Actor? 

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Last year, our Top 24 Users led the way with an accuracy rate of 76.67% when it came to predicting the Oscar nominations. Next up were Gold Derby’s in-house team of Editors with 74.44%, followed by the Experts with 71.11% and all Users with 68.09%. (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

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