Shh … here are 5 secrets for how to predict MTV Video Music Awards winners

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The last time a single video swept through the MTV Video Music Awards was Lady Gaga’s “Bad Romance” back in 2010. It won seven Moon Man trophies, including Video of the Year, Best Female Video and Best Pop Video. Since then, these kudos have spread the wealth amongst as many artists as possible. It’s with this trend in mind that I suggest using recent precedent to help predict this year’s VMAs. Take a look at my analysis below before making your predictions and you could win our prize of a $100 Amazon gift certificate. It’s fun and easy!

Kendrick Lamar and Taylor Swift lead MTV Video Music Awards nominations

1. Video of the Year no longer wins lesser awards
The last four Video of the Year champs did not win in every category for which they were nominated. Only 2013 champ “Mirrors” won a second award (Best Editing), while “Firework” (2011), “We Found Love” (2012) and “Wrecking Ball” (2014) all won only the single, albeit top, prize.

2. Women control Video of the Year now
Don’t let the Taylor vs. Nicki & Katy Twitter Feud of 2015 deter you from predicting Taylor Swift or Beyonce to win Video of the Year. Only three of the last 10 winners were men (only one in the last eight). While men have won more often overall, 12 of these 18 victories date back to the early days of this award. 

3. Spreading the wealth
In the last four years, no single video has won more than one award across the six major categories — Video of the Year, Female Video, Male Video, Pop Video, Rock Video and Hip-Hop Video. 

4. A Video of the Year nomination doesn’t mean you’ll win any awards
Since 2011, at least one nominee for Video of the Year has gone home empty-handed: “Grenade” (2011), “Take Care” and “Somebody That I Used to Know” (2012), “Blurred Lines” (2013) and “Happy” (2014). “Thrift Shop” also went unrewarded in 2013, but Macklemore & Ryan Lewis picked up multiple awards that night for their other songs, so I’ll call that a wash.

5. Process of elimination
So, if Swift or Beyonce claim Video of the Year, who will win the other major categories? Whichever of these women doesn’t take the top prize will probably win Female Video. With those two taken care of, there are only three possibilities left for Pop Video, which will likely go to one of the other Video of the Year nominees — “Uptown Funk” or “Thinking Out Loud.” The loser between those two in Pop Video will most likely take Male Video instead. That would leave Kendrick Lamar‘s “Alright” as the only non-winning Video of the Year nominee, and mean Hip-Hop Video will likely be Nicki Minaj‘s “Anaconda” while Rock Video will be wide open with no clear frontrunner.

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