How accurate are the experts’ Oscar predictions at Gold Derby?

If you’re wondering how seriously you should regard the current Oscar predictions of Gold Derby’s experts, consider our accuracy rate on this same day (Dec. 5) last year. We nailed 71% of the eventual nominees in 19 categories.

In terms of predicting winners, we correctly foresaw three of the top six categories: Best Actress (Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”), Supporting Actor (J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”) and Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”). We got these three races wrong: Best Picture, Director and Actor.

See how our 22 experts rank Oscar contenders according to likelihood of winning

“Boyhood” was our overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture with the backing of 18 out of 26 pundits. “Selma” was ranked second with the backing of three experts. Eventual champ “Birdman” was ranked third and only had the support of one very smart guru: Mary Milliken (Reuters).

Last year we correctly predicted five of the eight nominees for Best Picture. We had “Whiplash” in ninth place, so if there had been 9 or 10 nominees, we would’ve had that right, too. However, we didn’t pick nominees “American Sniper” (ranked 12th by our experts) or “Grand Budapest Hotel” (13th).

We wrongly predicted Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”) would win Best Director (it went to “Birdman’s” Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu) and Michael Keaton (“Birdman”) to win Best Actor (Eddie Redmayne prevailed for “Theory of Everything”). But we weren’t too far off. Inarritu and Redmayne were ranked in second place.

To see the complete scorecard on our Dec. 5, 2014 predictions, click here. Green check marks indicate the Oscar nominees.

Two years ago, our pundits fared much better. On Dec. 5, 2013 we correctly predicted 5 of the top 6 Oscar races. See the scorecard. The only race we got wrong was Best Actor. We picked Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave”) over Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers’ Club”).

Below: our collective predictions on Dec. 5, 2014.

More News from GoldDerby