Oscars predictions: Experts split on Best Picture with 15 for ‘Birdman,’ 13 for ‘Boyhood’

In what may be one of the closest Best Picture races in recent memory, our 28 Oscar Experts are almost evenly divided between “Birdman” and “Boyhood.”

Birdman” has the narrowest of advantages, getting odds of 11/10 on the strength of 15 experts: Thelma Adams (ZEALnyc), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Mary Milliken (Reuters), Michael Musto (Out.com), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Jenelle Riley (Variety), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) and Gold Derby’s Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan.

UPDATED: Experts’ Oscars predictions in 24 categories

Boyhood,” has odds of 6/5 with the support of 13 Oscarologists: Mike Cidoni (Associated Press), Thom Geier, Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Dave Karger (Fandango), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Claudia Puig (USA Today), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

“Boyhood” was the early frontrunner, winning New York and Los Angeles critics’ prizes, followed by Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Awards for Best Picture.

Then “Birdman” pulled ahead, taking top honors at the PGA, DGA, and SAG Awards. “Apollo 13” (1995) stands alone as the only film to lose Best Picture at the Oscars after winning these three guild awards.

“Boyhood” rallied, winning Best Picture at the BAFTA Awards. The British academy has previwed the Best Picture champ at the Oscars for the last six years.

See Oscar rankings when Experts’ predictions are combined

None of our experts is predicting a win for any of the other six contenders.

The Grand Budapest Hotel” is the closest threat to the frontrunners, though a distant third at 50/1.

The other five nominees all trail with odds of 100/1: “American Sniper,” “The Imitation Game,” “Selma,” “Whiplash” and “The Theory of Everything.”

Review the individual predictions of our Experts here. And be sure to check out the Experts’ collective rankings and racetrack odds.

Make your Oscars picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the Best Picture winner using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000 prize. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. See who’s in our current Top 24 and their early Oscar predictions. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict Oscar nominations this year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. Register/log in to your account so you can also compete to predict the Indie Spirits, Razzies, “Survivor,” “The Amazing Race” and more.

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