Oscars predictions: Experts predict ‘Citizenfour’ will win Documentary Feature

All but three of our Oscar Experts predict that “Citizenfour” will win Best Documentary Feature, giving this film about Edward Snowden leading odds of 1/5. It would be the first win for director Laura Poitras. She lost her 2006 bid for “My Country, My Country” to Davis Guggenheim‘s “An Inconvenient Truth.” 

UPDATED: Experts’ Oscars predictions in 24 categories

Three of our Oscarologists disagree with the consensus. Jenelle Riley (Variety) and Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) both predict Netflix’s doc “Virunga” as the likely winner. Detailing the attempts to protect African land and wildlife, the film gets 10/1 odds. ​And Tariq Khan (Fox News) forecasts an upset by “Finding Vivian Maier,” a probing look at a humble nanny who was discovered to be a prolific photographer after her death. It gets 20/1 odds.

No experts are predicting a win for either of the other two nominees. “Last Days in Vietnam” is in fourth place with 50/1 odds, while “The Salt of the Earth” trails with 100/1 odds.

See Oscar rankings when Experts’ predictions are combined

Citizenfour” has been amply honored this awards season, receiving Best Documentary from BAFTA, DGA, LA and NY film critics, the National Society of Film Critics, and the International Documentary Association.

While it wasn’t even nominated at the PGA Awards, that winner, “Life Itself,” isn’t in contention at the Oscars. “Citizenfour” was also absent from the WGA Awards, where the winner was another film missing from the academy’s lineup: “The Internet’s Own Boy.”

Review the individual predictions of our Experts here. And be sure to check out the Experts’ collective rankings and racetrack odds.

Make your Oscars picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the Best Cinematography winner using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000 prize. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. See who’s in our current Top 24 and their early Oscar predictions. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict Oscar nominations this year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. Register/log in to your account so you can also compete to predict the Indie Spirits, Razzies, “Survivor,” “The Amazing Race” and more.

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