Michael Musto insists he “really isn’t going out on a limb” by picking “Birdman” to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
“‘Birdman‘ won the PGA! It won the DGA!” he harrumphs to me in our podcast chat. Listen below. “We know for a fact that the PGA has a tremendous bearing. For the past 5 years it’s predicted the Oscar winner. Last year I know they went with a tie – ‘12 Years a Slave‘ and ‘Gravity.’ They hedged their bets, but other than that all of their picks lately have been winning the Oscar. The DGA is an amazing prognosticator, too.”
I agree with Musto that “Birdman” is ahead, but I don’t have as much confidence as he does when we begin our pundit smackdown. Gradually, I chip away at his bravado as I quote lots of contrary stats that make us both worry that —uh, oh — maybe we should switch back to “Boyhood,” which just won Best Picture at BAFTA. After all, BAFTA has correctly predicted the top Oscar for the past 6 years in a row.
“All that being said, I’m really not sure,” he finally concedes. “I wouldn’t be surprised if ‘Boyhood‘ won.”
That’s how ultimately confounding this derby is, dagnabbit! Even two huffy Oscar Know-It-Alls like Musto and me must concede that, suddenly, we’re Oscar idiots.
See Musto’s predictions here. Mine here. Below: Listen to our fun chat. Search for Gold Derby at the iTunes store to subscribe to our podcast series or check out our channel at Libsyn. Make your predictions here or below. Compete to win our contest prize of $1,000 for best picks.