Ricky Gervais, are we underestimating you at Emmy Awards for ‘Derek’ swan song?

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Are we underestimating that rascal Ricky Gervais to win an Emmy Award for his Netflix telefilm “Derek: The Final Chapter“? Don’t forget, Gervais waged a surprise attack on awards pundits back in 2007 by winning the Best Comedy Actor Emmy for the final season of “Extras” over frontrunners Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock”), Steve Carell (“The Office”) and Tony Shalhoub (“Monk”). So, it wouldn’t be a wise move to count Gervais out this time around in his new category of Best Movie/Mini Actor.

Oscars host poll: Ricky Gervais vs. Ellen DeGeneres vs. Robert Downey Jr.

Gervais has legions of fans out there, as evidenced by his skyrocketing performance in our poll asking who should host the Oscars next. As of this writing, Gervais has 75% of 12,000 votes, crushing fellow contenders Robert Downey Jr. and Ellen DeGeneres

Emmy voters may be inclined to give that darling Derek a farewell hug. He’s Gervais’ most endearing character by far — relatable and loveable at every turn. If fact, many of Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors and User were predicting that Gervais would win the Emmy last year in the Comedy Actor category thanks to a socko episode submission. Alas, Gervais got cheated when Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”) won Emmy #4 instead.

Gervais’ co-nominees in this year’s Movie/Mini Actor race are David Oyelowo (“Nightingale”), Richard Jenkins (“Olive Kitteridge”), Mark Rylance (“Wolf Hall”), Timothy Hutton (“American Crime”) and Adrien Brody (“Houdini”). Interestingly, these leading men are all nominated for dark, dramatic roles. That could be key to helping Gervais pull off another shocking Emmy upset, as he’s the only actor in the category who’s playing a genuinely light-hearted, funny character. Talk about a shiny orange in a barrel of dry apples.

Ricky Gervais on crazy comedy, Emmys and saying goodbye to Netflix hit ‘Derek’

Make your own Emmys picks now to the right or at the bottom of this post. You could win one of our three prizes ($500, $300 and $200 Amazon gift certificates) as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys line-up).

Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Emmys last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar.

Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby’s Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year’s Emmys). Our Users scored  51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.) Which group will be victorious this year?

As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

Photo: Ricky Gervais in ‘Derek.’ Credit: Netflix/Everett/REX

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