SAG Awards predictions: Jon Hamm (‘Mad Men’) will finally get to give acceptance speech after five losses

jon hamm mad men

Jon Hamm (“Mad Men“) isn’t quite as overdue at the SAG Awards as he was at the Emmys, where he finally won Best Drama Actor in September. After all, he’s already shared in two wins for Best TV Drama Ensemble (2008, 2009) but he’s still yet to win the individual SAG prize for Best Drama Actor despite five previous bids. That will change according to our early predictions.

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A whopping 20 of our Top 24 Users – those two dozen folks who got the highest scores predicting last year’s SAG winners – are betting on Hamm to prevail, giving him 2/7 odds: Varla, NoLogo, Halo_Insider, Chaplin567, eastwest, Charles Bright, Bird, Freddie Deane, SamEckmann, FreemanGriffin, Eng Keat, Writer12, JMS, MovieMania, bondzzz, Noe, Gabriel Severo, MMM93, wienrdog0 and Zubrowka.

That group includes both bondzzz and FreemanGriffin, who tied with the highest predictions accuracy (88%) forecasting last year’s awards. Bondzzz finished at the very top of our leaderboard thanks to savvy betting that gave him the highest points-total.

This is the first time Hamm and his show have been invited back to these kudos since 2012, and the series hasn’t won Best Ensemble since 2009. But voters may now take the opportunity to reward him for the show’s swan song the way they did with “Breaking Bad” and its star Bryan Cranston in 2013.

As strong a favorite as Hamm is, though, the Top 24 aren’t unanimous. Two of them are predicting Kevin Spacey (“House of Cards“), giving him 9/1 odds to upset: dosmax and King Kunta. Unlike Hamm, Spacey has won individual SAG honors before. He’s the defending champ in this category and was also awarded Best Film Actor and Best Film Ensemble in 1999 for “American Beauty,” which later won him the second of his two Oscars. In all, Spacey has been nominated 10 times for his film and TV work.

Two more top users say breakout star Rami Malek (“Mr. Robot“) will prevail, giving him 10/1 odds: MattDissen and ldm2006. This is Malek’s first nomination, and “Mr. Robot” is a freshman series; the SAG Awards aren’t usually as friendly to new shows as the Golden Globes, where Malek is the frontrunner to win Best TV Drama Actor, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. After all, Viola Davis won a SAG Award last year for the first season of “How to Get Away with Murder.”

None of our Top 24 are predicting the other two nominees in this category: Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”) and Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”), both of whom have 66/1 odds.

The consensus of Gold Derby Editors – those of us who cover awards year-round for the site – is also that Hamm will prevail. Five out of six of us – Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, Paul Sheehan and I – are betting on Hamm, giving him 2/7 odds. Matt Noble predicts that Spacey will repeat, giving him 9/2 odds.

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Mad Men” photo credit: AMC

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