Uh-oh! Last-minute SAG Awards prediction jitters: Redmayne or Keaton?

Do you ever wonder what Gold Derby editors say to each other (and how they say it) behind the scenes? For fun, here is our email chain from the past 24 hours as I expressed jitters over sticking by my prediction that Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything“) will win Best Actor at the Screen Actors Guild Awards over Michael Keaton (“Birdman“).

Responses by Daniel Montgomery, Marcus Dixon and Ralph Galvan below.

TOM: Uh-oh, I am the ONLY “Expert” predicting Eddie for the SAG win and Rob Licuria and I are the only Editors sticking out our necks for him.

Granted, this is a tough race to call. Keaton is the “COOLER” choice – and he portrays an actor in this film, which is being judged by other actors for awards. All that may give him an edge. Also, Keaton’s performance is far more artsy. But I’m sticking with Eddie for a few outrageous reasons:

— He gives the biggest, most showy performance. Body twisted and voice impaired by disease. At award shows, voters often go for the biggest or the most of something – like costume categories at the Oscars going to movies with the poofiest, frilliest clothes. Loudest movies win the sound awards. That kind of thing.

— It’s tacky to say it, but here I go anyway: dreamboat Eddie easily wins the hearts of all the straight gals and gay boys in SAG. Doesn’t that constitute about 70% of membership?

What are YOUR thoughts about Eddie vs. Michael?

DANIEL: Eddie could win and probably needs to win to keep his momentum alive. For a while I thought it would be Eddie because it’s a more Oscar-friendly role (real person, physical transformation), but at this point most of these races feel like foregone conclusions, and momentum has started to carry Keaton the way it did McConaughey did last year. It’s early yet, and Redmayne could pull it off, but I’m erring on the side of the frontrunners until I sense weakness.

MARCUS: I was on the Eddie train for a while (even doing my 5 Reasons Why item), but after Keaton killed it in his Globes speech, I switched to him for every future awards show. So far I’ve been right, calling him for Best Comedy Actor AND Best Actor at the Critics’ Choice. I’ll keep on this train until something else (SAG, BAFTA) proves me wrong.

RALPH: I hope you’re right, Tom but Keaton losing the SAG would be a major upset for the reason you stated: “he portrays an actor in this film, which is being judged by other actors for awards.” There are just too many of these actor folk that loved the hell out of Birdman because they related to his neurotic, insecure, ‘I do it for the art not money’ portrayal. Watching an actor play an actor is still the only way I can talk myself into Jean Dujardin beating out Clooney/Pitt/DiCaprio (who also ‘transformed’ with Hoover, just not to Redmaynes extent) – because he played an Actor.

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