SAG Awards: Oscar winners preview?

The Screen Actors Guild, which numbers more than 100,000, has been bestowing competive awards since 1994. However, despite the actors branch making up 20% of the 6,000 Oscar voters, only two-thirds of SAG champs have won over the academy as well. Compare that to the 90% success rate of the Directors Guild of America at presaging which helmer will prevail at the Oscars. 

SAG Awards: Complete list of film and TV nominations

That so-so success rate is good news for those snubbed by SAG. Among those overlooked by the guild are three of our top five Oscar contenders for Best Supporting Actor: predicted winner Michael Keaton (“Spotlight”) and his co-star Mark Ruffalo as well as Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”). 

Also MIA at SAG are Best Actor hopeful Matt Damon (“The Martian”), past SAG darling Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”), and Supporting Actress favorites Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”) and Jane Fonda (“Youth”). 

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Sure, all four of last year’s Oscar acting champs first prevailed here but that marked only the sixth time for the guild to hit a home run. 

Over its first 21 years, this awardsfest has handed out 84 trophies. The SAG choices have forecast the Academy Awards winners just 55 times — 57 if you count Benicio del Toro, who won in lead at SAG in 2000 for “Traffic” and supporting at the Oscars and Kate Winslet who did the reverse, winning supporting at SAG in 2008 for “The Reader” and lead at the Oscars. 

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Here is the year-by-year breakdown of how many SAG winners repeated at the Oscars.

1994: 3 out of 4
1995: 2 out of 4
1996: 3 out of 4
1997: 4 out of 4 (Kim Basinger and Gloria Stuart tied in supporting)
1998: 2 out of 4
1999: 3 out of 4
2000: 2 out of 4 (Del Toro in different categories)
2001: 1 out of 4
2002: 1 out of 4
2003: 3 out of 4
2004: 4 out of 4
2005: 3 out of 4
2006: 3 out of 4
2007: 2 out of 4
2008: 3 out of 4 (Winslet in different categories)
2009: 4 out of 4
2010: 4 out of 4
2011: 3 out of 4
2012: 3 out of 4
2013: 4 out of 4
2014: 4 out of 4

See ups and downs of Oscar races over entire awards season

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