Brie Larson (“Room“) is the frontrunner to win Best Actress at the SAG Awards according to the combined predictions of Expert film journalists we’ve polled, along with Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s SAG nominations and the more than 1000 total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors. Do you agree the first-timer will prevail?
Larson gets leading odds of 9/5 despite having never been nominated at the SAG Awards before. She previously contended at the Spirit Awards and Critics Choice for her role in “Short Term 12” (2013) and is nominated at the Spirits again this year for “Room,” but this would be her first time recognized by her acting peers.
According to our predictions, Larson will have to face off against a pair of SAG darlings.
Ranked second with odds of 4/1 is Cate Blanchett (“Carol“), who has already won three times out of a whopping 13 nominations, including one win for Best Film Ensemble (“The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” 2003) and two for individual acting: Best Supporting Actress (“The Aviator,” 2004) and Best Actress (“Blue Jasmine,” 2013).
Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn“) is only 21-years-old, but she’s already a past SAG nominee. She contended last year for Best Ensemble for “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” losing to the cast of “Birdman.” This year we expect her to receive her first individual plaudits, ranking her fourth with odds of 13/2.
Most of our predictors agree on those first four Best Actress slots, leaving the fifth up for grabs. We’re anticipating that it will go to Lily Tomlin (“Grandma“), who gets 20/1 odds. She has three previous SAG nominations, all for “The West Wing,” but they indicate how much her acting peers love her. In addition to two bids for Best TV Drama Ensemble (2002, 2004), she was nominated for Best TV Drama Actress despite being only a recurring actor on that series.
If we’re right that Larson will win SAG, does that make her the Oscar frontrunner too? This guild lines up with the academy’s choices for Best Actress more often than not: 71% of winners (15 out of 21) line up with Oscar.
Only six times in SAG’s 21-year history has its Best Actress winner not gone on to claim an Oscar. In those half dozen cases, the eventual Oscar champ was at least nominated by SAG.
In 2002, Renee Zellweger (“Chicago”) prevailed at SAG, but Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”) won Oscar.
2008 was an unusual year. Meryl Streep (“Doubt”) won SAG. Kate Winslet had been nominated there as a lead for “Revolutionary Road” and won the supporting race for “The Reader.” However, the academy promoted her “Reader” performance to lead, where she defeated Streep.
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“Room” photo credit: A24 Films