Oscar predictions update: Michael Keaton (‘Spotlight’) way up, Mark Rylance moves ahead of Idris Elba

Michael Keaton, who was already out front for his featured turn in “Spotlight,” got a big boost as the film opened to rave reviews. Many critics singled out his performance as tough-talking editor Walter “Robby” Robinson who leads a team of Boston Globe reporters exposing the coverup of a sex scandal by local Catholic diocese. He now has the backing of 10 of of the 22 experts at Gold Derby (Oscarwatchers at Yahoo, USA Today, Entertainment Weekly, etc.). That’s up by two from last week and boosts his odds of winning to 11 to 4 (from 10 to 3). The actor holds an Oscar IOU from last year when he lost his lead bid for “Birdman.” Will academy voters reward him this time down in supporting? 

One month ago, Mark Rylance didn’t even make the top five for his subtle performance as a Russian spy in “Bridge of Spies.” Today, with the film continuing to do well at the box office, he is sitting in second place (up one from last week). While he still has just two votes, the rest of us are ranking him higher on our ballots and he now has odds of 5/1 to add an Oscar to his three Tonys. 

Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation“) lost two of his four votes as Christopher Rosen (EW) and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)  both switched to Keaton. He dropped to third place with odds of 11/2. 

To blame: While the one-time frontrunner got great reviews as a warrior who recruits child soldiers in Cary Fukunaga‘s unflinching drama, the film got a limited release as it simultaneously streamed on Netflix.  

See the Oscar predictions of the 22 experts in 12 top categories. See latest racetrack odds.

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