Last year, I came in 12th place out of more than 2,500 people predicting the Emmy nominations, but I desperately want to crack the Top 10 this year. Could the following six Emmy longshots push me over the edge?
The half-dozen contenders below all have lowly 100/1 combined odds at Gold Derby, which means I’ll earn more points if I predict them and end up being correct. Don’t forget, if there’s a tie for the highest prediction accuracy, the tie-breaker will be determined by the person with the most points. That’s when it becomes advantageous to place your special 500 and 200 point bets on categories where you’re predicting longshots to be nominated.
Let’s examine the pros and cons of the six Emmy longshots that I’m banking on to receive nominations on July 16. And then be sure to make your own Emmy predictions and be in with a chance to win prizes, bragging rights and a place of honor in next year’s Top 24 Users.
Hugh Bonneville (“Downton Abbey”)
Currently in 12th place for Best Drama Actor
I don’t know who’s crazier: me for predicting Bonneville or you for not. He was nominated twice for his leading role on “Downton Abbey” (2012, 2013) and was only snubbed last year because of the influx of those “True Detective” guys Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson, who never should have been in the Drama category to begin with. With these two out of the way, won’t Emmy voters go back to what they’re comfortable with and nominate Bonneville a third time?
Steve Buscemi (“Portlandia”)
Currently in 13th place for Best Comedy Guest Actor
The Emmy guest-acting ballot is mammoth, but does last year’s surprise nominee Buscemi get an extra boost simply by the fact that his last name starts with a B? I think so. Plus, don’t forget that Buscemi’s “Boardwalk Empire” ended this season so voters may feel an extra need to honor him here, since the Drama Actor category is way too stacked these days. Added bonus: Buscemi also directed his “Portlandia” episode, titled “House for Sale.”
William Devane (“24: Live Another Day”)
Currently in 13th place for Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actor
This prediction is half-objective and half-wishful thinking. Back when “24” was a drama series, two of its Presidents were nominated for their roles — Gregory Itzin and Cherry Jones — with Jones pulling off an upset victory in 2009. As the show’s new POTUS, Devane got to show off his acting chops by battling Alzheimer’s disease. I have a feeling that if “Live Another Day” had aired this spring, instead of way back in the summer, Devane would be more of a frontrunner.
Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey”)
Currently in 13th place for Best Drama Actress
I’m not sure why people across the board are dropping thrice-nominated Dockery from their predictions this year, as “Downton Abbey” is just as hot as ever with critics and fans. Perhaps they think that one of the freshman frontrunners — Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder”) or Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”) — will knock her out? The “Downton” cast continues to surprise us year after year, so I’m playing it safe by nominating the whole lot.
Kiernan Shipka (“Mad Men”)
Currently in 13th place for Best Drama Guest Actress
Over the years, “Mad Men” actors and actresses have earned a whopping 34 Emmy nominations, with four coming in this category: Cara Buono (2011), Randee Heller (2011), Julia Ormond (2012) and Linda Cardellini (2013). Fan-favorite Shipka has the best chance of finally reaping a nod this year for playing Don Draper’s (Jon Hamm) troubled teen daughter, but also watch out for Ormond (who’s currently in 16th place) to repeat.
Merritt Wever (“Nurse Jackie”)
Currently in 9th place for Best Comedy Supporting Actress
The general consensus amongst Gold Derby’s editorial team is that Wever can actually win for the final season of “Nurse Jackie” … if only she can be nominated first. Wever’s had an unpredictable Emmy road thus far, with a surprise nomination in 2012, followed by a jaw-dropping win in 2013 and then a head-scratching snub in 2014. Emmy voters seem to be all over the place with Wever, which is why it’s a safe bet to predict her, just in case.
Make all your Emmy predictions and you could win a place of honor on our leaderboard, a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys line-up), and one of three contest prizes: $500 for first place, $300 for second place, and $200 for third place. Prizes will be bestowed as gift certificates to be redeemed at Amazon. See our contest rules for more info.
Average Gold Derby users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.
The Top 24 Users did the best at predicting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) when competing against Gold Derby’s Editors (77.68%), all Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%). Which group will be victorious this year?
Register/log in to your account (or create an account with one click using Facebook, Twitter, or Google) so you can compete to predict the Emmys, “Big Brother,” “So You Think You Can Dance,” “Survivor” and more.