Next week, the already legendary 31st season of “Survivor” will come to a close. Never before has the show entered the final episode with this many players left — there are six — so the episode is sure to bring even more surprises to an already shock-packed season. Before we press play on our DVRs Wednesday night, there are three questions we can’t stop pondering — the answers to which could impact the game (and your predictions) in a major way.
According to exclusive Gold Derby odds that are derived from the predictions made by contest entrants like you, Jeremy Collins (4/5 odds) will be crowned the winner, but both Spencer Bledsoe (10/3 odds) and Kelley Wentworth (5/1 odds) are close behind. Meanwhile, Kimmi Kappenberg, Tasha Fox and Keith Nale have virtually no chance of winning say our readers. Hurry — there’s a $100 Amazon gift certificate on the line for whomever does the best at predicting the “Survivor” finale, so start right now before our predictions center closes Wednesday, December 16 at 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET.
1. Why isn’t Jeremy on anyone’s target list?
Analysis: No, really. How has Jeremy managed to escape every single Tribal Council without a single vote cast against him? Perhaps Jeremy only looks like an obvious winner to viewers — indeed, his competitors aren’t privy to the “winner’s edit” while they’re playing — but it seems rather obvious that he’s been orchestrating many of the major eliminations so far. Jeremy was even able to use his hidden idol to save Stephen Fishbach — a move I thought was particularly dumb because it made it clear where his strongest ties were — and remain personally unscathed (Stephen, not so much). In theory, Jeremy should be the new challenge threat now that Joe Anglim is out of the game, but last week Keith was given that title instead.
Answer: If Jeremy hasn’t been a target yet, it’s unlikely he’ll become one any time soon. His alliance with Spencer and Tasha is all but locked up and he’s already secured a spot at the Final 5, provided he uses his hidden idol on himself at the next Tribal Council. Chances of winning? Insanely high.
2. Can Kelley make it to the Final 3?
Analysis: According to Gold Derby odds, Kelley was one of the early favorites to win the season until at some point in the middle — around the time she expertly used her hidden immunity idol to great (and entertaining) effect — when she was initiated into the witches coven with Ciera and Abi-Maria Gomes. Ever since then Kelley has had to be scrappy, win challenges and maneuver to avoid inevitable elimination. Luckily, Kelley’s own threat level was quickly diffused by the increasing levels of other players — namely Joe, Abi-Maria and now Keith. With a second hidden idol at her disposal, Kelley is secured a spot in the Final 5, leaving her with only the added task of having to either A) rally Keith and Kimmi to move against the other three, or B) win the last two immunity challenges.
Answer: In short, no. But the long answer is that maybe she can, but it’s a steep hill to climb. As good of a tool as Kelley’s hidden idol could be at the next Tribal Council, she isn’t aware that Jeremy has one, too, and that could minimize the power of her own. Then, of course, beating Spencer, Jeremy, Keith and Tasha at immunity twice in a row isn’t great odds. Anyone would be dumb to allow Kelley to go in front of a jury largely in her corner.
3. What does Jeff Probst mean when he says, “For the first time in 31 seasons…”?
Analysis: Aside from the fact that we’re entering the finale with six players left (rather than the typical five), what have we yet to see go down in 31 seasons of the game? Our only clue from the CBS trailer is that it’s something that happens at or is announced during a Tribal Council. In theory we have four Tribals to go so it could be at any one of those, making the possibilities endless. Let’s throw out a couple of ideas, though!
-Final 4 instead of the expected Final 3. Tribal Councils always had a Final 2 until, of course, they didn’t. It was in Season 13 “Survivor: Cook Islands” when the Final 3 first took place. Though it seems to go against the spirit of the competition, a Final 4 facing the jury would be something the second chancers never saw coming.
-All the votes cast don’t count. Think about it — both Jeremy and Kelley have hidden idols that they have to play at the next Tribal Council. What if every vote cast has either Jeremy or Kelley’s name, only for each to play their idols on themselves? That would mean all six votes are ineligible. What happens then? I imagine only the other four (or three, depending on immunity) would be up for the vote.
Answer: We’ll have to wait and see! Your guess is as good as mine.
Check out the overall Season 31 leaderboard to the right. Currently our #1 “Survivor” predictor is Eric123 with overall 79% accuracy and 75,700 points, but there is still time to play in our contest. Currently, Eric123 is predicting that Spencer will win the season. Don’t forget to update YOUR predictions here.
At the end of each week, the eligible user with the highest prediction accuracy and most points will win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, so it’s beneficial to keep coming back often and making/updating your predictions.
To vote for who you think will win, drag your chosen castaway over from the left to the right. Every time someone logs their predictions, the racetrack odds of the contestants are automatically updated.
Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts throughout the week, just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice.
Who’s going to win Season 31? Making your “Survivor” predictions is fun and easy. Just log into your Gold Derby account (or you can register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google) and then start casting your votes.
Remember that coming out on top doesn’t just mean answering that week’s questions correctly. You also have to use your three big bets (500 points and two of 200 points) strategically to score the most game points. If you bet on a longshot who pulls off an upset, you can really rack up the points, so don’t take them for granted.
Get started by making your prediction as to which castaway will win by using our easy drag-and-drop menu below our podcast with the latest castoff. And be sure to sound off on the current season of “Survivor” in Gold Derby’s reality TV forum.
Photo Credits: Monty Brinton/Bill Inoshita/CBS