This week “Survivor: Second Chance” threw us another curve ball by creating the largest merge in the game’s history, made up of 13 second chancers. Kass McQuillen couldn’t keep the chaos at bay and paid the ultimate price, becoming the first member of the jury. After that overwhelming Tribal Council, 12 castaways remain and with them so does the chaos. Though it’s hard to see exactly where alliance lines are drawn, let’s assess where each remaining player is in the game and how they rank in terms of their likelihood of winning. Hurry — make your “Survivor” predictions for a chance to win a $100 Amazon gift certificate. It’s fun and easy, so get started by scrolling down to predict which castaway will be kicked off the island next.
12. Ciera Eastin
After many weeks of the “non-edit” treatment, Ciera threw herself under the bus by getting in the middle of the Kass vs. Tasha feud by continuing to threaten Savage’s game. The dominating voting block has pegged her as a threat and debated getting rid of her before Kass. Gold Derby odds to win: 33/1
11. Stephen Fishbach
Though he was on the winning side at the merge, and presumably a part of the powerful Bayon alliance, Stephen has been talking about taking out Joe for weeks — much to the concern of Jeremy who wants Joe around as a shield. The divide between Stephen and Jeremy is likely to happen soon. Gold Derby odds to win: 33/1
10. Joe Anglim
Winning the first individual immunity challenge was probably not in Joe’s best interest, but he did it anyway. It’s unclear whether or not Joe learned from his mistakes from last season, but Stephen will be coming after him and others are likely to agree that he’s too big of a threat to leave around. Gold Derby odds to win: 11/1
9. Spencer Bledsoe
Spencer has either been fully on the outside or on the fringe of almost every tribal council he’s participated in. Though in some cases the swing vote position can be one of power, it ultimately leaves a castaway without a strong alliance. Spencer will be clawing his way into the majority for the rest of the game — at least until his vote becomes expendable. Gold Derby odds to win: 6/1
The Non-Threats That Won’t Win
8. Abi-Maria Gomes
Making it to the merge is the bread and butter strategy of someone like Abi-Maria because everyone believes they’ll beat her in the finals, and that’s likely to get her very close to the prize. The problem with Abi-Maria is eventually her tribe mates will get tired of being around her high-strung emotions and vote her out just to stay sane. Gold Derby odds to win: 33/1
7-5. Kelly Wiglesworth, Kimmi Kappenberg, Keith Nale
These three players can be grouped together because they’re playing the same exact game — “always vote with the majority.” While this plan will get each of them through the first stages of the merge, they’re the likeliest to go home just before the finals because they won’t have built an alliance to protect them, but they also won’t make the bold moves it would take to prevent their eventual elimination. Gold Derby odds to win: 33/1 for Kelly; 100/1 for Kimmi & Keith
Potential Winners in the Best Spot
4. Kelley Wentworth
Kelley could justifiably be grouped in with Kelly, Kimmi and Keith because she, too, is playing by voting with the majority, but the difference is that Kelley is also thinking very strategically about all of her moves, with a focused eye on how she’ll get to the end. She also has an idol that no one knows about it and is smart enough to use it to her advantage at the right time. Also: she’s getting a winner’s edit. Gold Derby odds to win: 51
3. Tasha Fox
Why more users aren’t predicting Tasha for the win is perplexing. She’s getting a heavy edit, been instrumental in and on the winning side of many Tribal Councils, and is in the dominant Bayon alliance. Her closest bonds seem to be to Savage and Jeremy, both of whom won’t want to be in the end together and likely to make Tasha their number two. I think she’d beat either of them. Gold Derby odds to win: 16/1
2. Andrew Savage
For a couple weeks it looked like Savage was on his way out, and may have been this week if not for the merge. In any other case, Savage’s proximity to going home might be a sign of an inability to go far, but now that he’s back with Jeremy, Savage is safely in the Bayon majority and no one (except Ciera) has their targets set on his back. Can he win over a jury? Depends on who he’s up against. Gold Derby odds to win: 33/1
1. Jeremy Collins
Jeremy continues to be one of the most powerful players in the game — like the godfather of the island, his tribe mates come to him for the name of who’s next on the hit list. This power position may eventually raise Jeremy’s threat level, but I’m not convinced anyone is brave enough to move against him and he has, of course, an idol no one knows about with the wits to use it correctly. It also doesn’t hurt that I think he could win by a landslide against anyone. Gold Derby odds to win: 19/10
Check out the overall Season 31 leaderboard to the right. Currently our #1 “Survivor” predictor is Eeric with overall 90% accuracy and 28,406 points, but there are still many weeks left to play in our contest and be eligible to win our weekly and overall season prizes. See our contest rules here and don’t forget to update YOUR predictions here.
At the end of each week, the eligible user with the highest prediction accuracy and most points will win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, so it’s beneficial to keep coming back often and making/updating your predictions.
To vote for who you think will be voted out next, drag your chosen castaways over from the left to the right and arrange them in your predicted order. Every time someone logs their predictions, the racetrack odds of the contestants are automatically updated.
If the majority of readers think Andrew will be voted out, that means he’ll have the best odds and will go to the front of the pack. Conversely, the contestants who don’t receive many predictions have the worst odds and will go to the bottom of the pile.
Gold Derby users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts throughout the week, just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice.
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Remember that coming out on top doesn’t just mean answering that week’s questions correctly. You also have to use your three big bets (500 points and two of 200 points) strategically to score the most game points. If you bet on a longshot who pulls off an upset, you can really rack up the points, so don’t take them for granted.
Get started by making your prediction as to which castaway will be voted off the island next by using our easy drag-and-drop menu below our podcast with the latest castoff. And be sure to sound off on the current season of “Survivor” in Gold Derby’s reality TV forum.
Photo Credit: Monty Brinton/CBS