‘The Amazing Race’ predictions: Tanner and Josh (Team Texas) have leading 9-to-10 odds to win

A week ago, a rare thing happened: “The Amazing Race” lost its Emmy race. But not to be stopped, and still carrying 10 previous wins (from 13 nominations) in its backpack, the race began its 27th season on Friday with 11 new teams setting out on a world tour that will end with a million dollar paycheck to one pair. Readers who have entered our prediction contest have singled out best friends Tanner and Josh (“Team Texas”) as the team most likely to win with odds of 9/10 to be first to the finish line. What do you think? 

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Let’s take a closer look at their episode one performance to see if they truly have what it takes to go all the way. After reading my analysis, head over to the prediction center to tell us who you think will win and who will be eliminated next. Every week, someone will win a $100 Amazon gift certificate for predicting the episode’s results with the best accuracy. Don’t miss your chance to join the race!

In many ways, the first leg of each season of the “The Amazing Race” sets the tone for the entire season strong teams emerge as early leaders and weaker teams have their vulnerabilities exposed. As winners of this first leg, Tanner and Josh prove how big of a threat they are and win the highly coveted “Express Pass” which gives them the chance to skip any one task during the race before passing it off to another team. The mandate that they must use it by the end of the 5th leg means that their chances of staying at the top of the field until then remain high.

But how often do winners of the first leg go on to win the entire season? Well, the last time it happened was four years ago on season 20 and only five other teams accomplished the feat before that, proving that in the Amazing Race no position is ever guaranteed.

Indeed, teams are often brought back to an even playing field at the start of new legs when flights are delayed or teams arrive at a destination that won’t open until the next morning. So in many ways the Amazing Race is a compilation of many smaller races, where at times all the teams begin again from the same departure point with equal odds of taking the lead.

In this very leg, Tanner and Josh didn’t begin the episode as well as they finished it. In the season’s first challenge, teams were tasked with peddling water bikes and although Tanner and Josh jumped to an early lead, when their equipment malfunctioned (or were they just too aggressive with it?) they quickly fell behind and were the last to grab their plane tickets from Phil.

At that point in the episode, confidence in Team Texas could have easily waned, exposing the potential that they are just as likely to make race-ending mistakes as any other team. And had it been at the end of the leg, rather than at the beginning, the race very well could have ended for them. But their ability to come from behind and win the first leg seems to have kept the confidence alive for users with overwhelming odds to win.

Will Team Texas continue to overcome obstacles to maintain their status as leaders? Or will they become the next first leg winners to ultimately come up short in the overall race to the finish? 

To make your weekly predictions, just log in to your account (or create a free one), click on “The Amazing Race” button and start answering questions like:

Which team will win ‘The Amazing Race’?

Which team will be eliminated next?

Which team will place first in this leg?

Will the Save be used?

Will the Express Pass be used?

Answer our questions before every episode and you will earn points based on correct predictions. The deadline for the next episode is this coming Friday at 4 p.m. PT. 

To enter your predictions, make sure you are logged into your Gold Derby account or register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google.

After logging in, click on the “Predictions” button found at the top-right of every page. That will bring you to a list of every event currently being predicted at Gold Derby.

We are forecasting everything from the results on reality TV shows like “The Amazing Race” and “Survivor” to the winners of the Oscars and the Country Music Assn. Awards. 

Click on any box to bring up that event, then scroll down to start making your predictions.

For each TV show, cast your votes on several different questions relating to the upcoming episode. And remember to place your special bets too. 

Below, get started with your predictions for “The Amazing Race” by picking which team will be eliminated next by using our easy drag-and-drop menu. 

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