3 Emmy longshots to bet on for Best Drama Series: ‘The Americans,’ ‘Outlander’ and …

Hey, Derbyites: Do you want to do better in your Emmy predictions this year and win our $1,000 grand prize? Then I urge you to re-consider three potential Emmy contenders for Best Drama Series as you go about making or updating your predictions: “The Americans,” “Outlander” and “Boardwalk Empire.”

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These three series currently all have lowly 100/1 combined odds at Gold Derby, which means you’ll earn more points if you predict them and end up being correct. Don’t forget, if there’s a tie amongst users for the highest prediction accuracy, the tie-breaker will be determined by the person who has the most points. That’s where it becomes advantageous to place your 500 and 200 point bets on categories where you’re predicting longshots to be nominated.

Due to a new Emmy rule, there will be seven nominees for Best Drama Series and Best Comedy Series this year instead of the normal six. That’s great news for freshman series or under-the-radar returning shows looking for their chances in the Emmys spotlight.

Let’s examine the pros and cons of the three dramas that I think deserve better than 100/1 combined odds at Gold Derby:

The Americans


“The Americans” is one of the most buzzed-about shows currently on TV with a strong, passionate fan base. It’s also got an above-average 92 score at Metacritic, meaning it’ll pop up on various Top 10 lists at the end of the year. Despite its low ratings, FX just announced a Season 4 pick-up.


For first two seasons, “The Americans” only nabbed a trio of Emmy nominations: two for guest star Margo Martindale and one for the show’s main title theme music. The show has yet to break into the Best Drama Series line-up, while the show’s heralded stars Keri Russell and Matthew Rhys have also come up empty-handed so far.



Starz has been steadily gaining speed at awards shows in recent years, with its miniseries “The White Queen” and “The Missing” doing well with nominations at the Emmys and Globes. Isn’t it time for the pay cabler to break into the Drama Series race? And what better way than with the ultra-hip “Outlander” and its engaging star Caitriona Balfe?


The Emmys are notorious for failing to embrace shows with a genre bias, and “Outlander” includes elements of time travel. (See our photo gallery below.) Also, the fact that the Golden Globes snubbed this hot new show doesn’t bode well for its Emmy chances, as Globe voters love putting foreign shows and stars on the map.

Boardwalk Empire


Never bet against the mob. “Boardwalk Empire” is one of the most successful shows in Emmy history, with an astounding 18 wins (from 47 nominations). That’s more trophies than “Mad Men,” “Breaking Bad” and “Game of Thrones.” Also in its favor: “Boardwalk Empire” went out on a creative high note last fall so sentimental voters may want to give it a goodbye hug.


Despite its many triumphs at the Creative Arts, “Boardwalk Empire” hasn’t been nominated as Best Drama Series in three years. With no new season on the horizon and buzz all but dead, could the show be out of sight, out of mind? And, hey, if voters want to honor a show for its final season, why wouldn’t they just give the trophy to “Mad Men” one last time, as it’s already won four Emmys as Best Drama Series?

Emmy nomination for ‘Outlander’ star Caitriona Balfe?

Make your Emmys picks now — click here — or scroll down to predict the Best Drama Series winner using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Best predictions will win $1,000. And the 24 Users with the best scores advance to a team to compete against our Experts and Editors next year. Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Emmys last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar. See contest rules.

Average Gold Derby users just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds. The Top 24 Users did the best at predicting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) when competing against Gold Derby’s Editors (77.68%), all Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%). Which group will come out victorious this year?

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