Are we underestimating ‘The Missing’ for Best Limited Series Emmy?

The Starz mystery “The Missing” surprised at the Golden Globes with a pair of nominations: Best Movie/Miniseries and Best Movie/Mini Actress (Frances O’Connor). But our predictors still consider it an Emmy underdog. It ranks sixth in our combined predictions for Best Limited Series with 14/1 odds. But our Editors disagree. Not only do we collectively predict it to be nominated, we rank it third overall, even ahead of “American Horror Story: Freak Show,” “Wolf Hall” and “The Honorable Woman.”

Compare that to our other prediction groups. Experts rank it seventh with 16/1 odds. Only five out of the 11 are anticipating a nomination: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly) and Gold Derby’s own Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan.

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Our Users also rank “The Missing” in seventh place, giving it 25/1 odds.

Our Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who racked up the best scores among the thousands predicting last year’s Emmy nominations) are a little more optimistic. They rank it fifth with 16/1 odds. 10 of them are predicting it to make the cut: JOSHUA, Cameron Fansler, BurnBook, Aquila_Henry, Writer12, PierceUNC, Jed Reifer, victor, Dillon Rosenblatt and Gold Derby contributing editor Charles Bright.

Of those, it’s worth noting that PierceUNC was our champ last year with 80% accuracy predicting nominations.

But our Editors are especially bullish. Six out of seven predict a nomination for the longform drama: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble and O’Neil and Sheehan. That’s even more than are predicting “American Horror Story,” which has been nominated for the top prize every year.

Should we pay attention to their premonition? Quite possibly. Consider that O’Neil had the highest score among Experts predicting last year’s Emmy nominations (76%), while Sheehan tied the top score among ALL users predicting last year’s winners (66%).

Starz has made impressions in longform categories before. In 2011, its historical epic “The Pillars of the Earth” earned seven nominations, including Best Movie/Miniseries, and it won Best Sound Editing. And just last year, another historical drama, “The White Queen,” also earned a bid for Best Miniseries.

Both of those Emmy windfalls had also been presaged by the Golden Globes, which had given “Pillars” and “Queen” multiple nominations. Will “The Missing” be next?

Currently leading the Limited Series contest is HBO’s “Olive Kitteridge,” which leads our predictions with 17/10 odds based on support from 10 of 11 Experts, six of seven Editors, 22 of our Top 24 Users and the vast majority of All Users.

Of the four groups making predictions at Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users did the best forecasting last year’s Emmy nominations (78.55%) compared to the Editors (77.68%), All Users (74.78%) and the Experts (74.64%). 

Who do you think will win Best Limited Series? Make your prediction below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. Average Gold Derby users just like YOU turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our User racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

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