Tony Awards experts: ‘Curious Incident’ will win Best Play, ‘Wolf Hall’ could spoil

With less than a week until nominations are announced for the Tony Awards next Tuesday (April 28), our dozen Experts have been busy updating their predictions. Among our 12 Tonywatchers, “Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time” has soldified its support for Best Play with 10 of us touting this Brit hit. The remaining two are backing another import from the UK, “Wolf Hall: Parts 1 and 2,” to take the top prize when these awards are handed out on June 7. 

 But it is Gold Derby Users – just like YOU – who turn out to be our smartest prognosticators. So, it’s vital that you give us your predictions. Your picks factor into our Users racetrack odds which are a key component of Gold Derby’s official (combined) odds. Make the best predictions and you could win our contest prize: a $100 Amazon gift certificate and a place of honor in our famous leaderboards. (Be sure to take notice of the finer points of our contest rules HERE.)

When it came to predicting the Tony Awards nominations last year, our Experts tied the Top 24 Users (those users with the best scores predicting the 2013 nominations) with an overall accuracy rate of 86.67%. Our Editors came in at 80.42% while all Users averaged 67.92%. (Click on each group’s name to see their overall results from last year.)

Even before the nominations were announced last year, the collective opinion of both our Experts and Top 24 Users had foreseen that “All the Way” would win Best Play. Both groups nailed four of the five nominees for Best Play with each missing the bid by “Outside Mullingar” in favor of the snubbed “The Realistic Joneses.”

Predicting “Curious Incident,” which won the Olivier in 2013, to prevail are: Jason Clark (Entertainment Weekly), Thom GeierAndy Humm (Gay USA), Brian Lipton (Cititour),  Michael Musto (, Jesse Oxfeld (The Forward), Wayman Wong (Talkin’ Broadway) and all three of us — Tom O’NeilDavid Sheward and me — here at Gold Derby. That support gives it leading odds of 13/8. 

Those backing the epic “Wolf Hall” are Melissa Bernardo (Entertainment Weekly) and Harry Haun (Playbill); that translates into odds of 10/3. 

Our Experts expect the other three nominees for Best Play to be “The Audience” (with odds of 6/1 to win) and, at 10/1 each, the Pulitzer Prize champ “Disgraced” and “Airline Highway.”

In order to win our contest, you must have the highest accuracy at predicting the nominees in the top eight categories (four productions and four acting). But you may need more than that. If more than one user has the best percentage, the tie will be broken by most game points. So, remember to place your three super bets when making predictions. Each user gets one super bet of 500 points and two of 200 points with all the other categories worth 100 points. Strategy is key. Place those super bets wisely and they could crown you our winner.

That’s what happened when we tallied up prediction scores for last year’s Tony Awards nominations. Nine users were tied at the top with a jaw-dropping 95% accuracy. However, J F Petsche was declared the winner because he scored 6,046 points (including 2,915 points for Play Revival where he had placed his 500-point bet). Compare that to second-place finisher Ted Stevenson  who scored 5,674 points (he put his 500-point bet on Musical Revival and earned 2,333 points there). 

Get started by making your own predictions for Best Play using our easy drag-and-drop menu found at the bottom of this post.

You can continue to update and change your predictions until the morning of the nominations announcement on April 28. Just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice. And remember to place your 500 and 200-point bets wisely. 

To enter your predictions for the other genre categories, make sure you are logged into your Gold Derby account or register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google.

After logging in, click on the “Predictions” button found at the top-right of every page. That will bring you to a list of every event currently being predicted at Gold Derby.

We are forecasting everything from the winners of both Daytime and Primetime Emmys to the results on reality TV shows like “The Amazing Race” and “Survivor” and talent shows such as “American Idol” and “The Voice.” Click on any box to bring up that event, then scroll down to start making your predictions.

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