Tonys Best Actor (Musical) showdown: Song vs dance men

The Best Actor (Musical) category is wide open at this year’s Tony Awards. With no clear frontrunner,  it is vital we have your predictions as to the winner of this race. Gold Derby Users – just like YOU – are the smartest prognosticators when it comes to these top Broadway kudos. Your picks factor into our Users racetrack odds which are a key component of Gold Derby’s official (combined) odds. And those are closely monitored by producers and stars alike. 

There are just eight days to go till Tony nominations are announced on April 28. Win our predictions contest and you will earn a place of honor in our famous leaderboards as well as a $100 Amazon gift certificate and bragging rights for a year. Get started below by reading our recap of the top contenders for Best Actor (Musical) and then casting your ballot. 

Lesser-known headliners are leading the pack.

Chief among them is Robert Fairchild, of the New York City Ballet, making his Broadway debut in the Gene Kelly role in “An American in Paris.” Fairchild’s athletic and expressive dancing has been cheered. Likewise for Tony Yazbeck of “On the Town” who also takes on a dance-heavy role played by Kelly in the movie version.

However, there are few instances of lead Tonys going to mainly terpsichorean headliners. Natalia Makarova won in 1983 as the ballerina Vera Barnova in the revival of “On Your Toes.” Dancers Ray Bolger,Ben Vereen, Tommy Tune and Gregory Hines all won Tonys but their roles relied as much on their acting and singing skills.

There are also a slew of past Tony winners and nominee in the running who are looking good.

Brian D’Arcy James has gotten amazing word of mouth for “Something Rotten” and he’s has been up for Tonys twice before (for his featured role in “Sweet Smell of Success” and star turn in “Shrek: The Musical”) without a win.

Michael Cerveris won a Tony for his featured role in “Assassins” in 2004 and contended twice more for that award as well as twice for this one. He delivers a complex and wrenching performance as the closeted gay father in “Fun Home” and won the Lucille Lortel Award for the show’s Off-Broadway run.

Roger Rees has a meaty part playing opposite Chita Rivera in “The Visit.” He won Best Actor (Play) back in 1982 for his starring role in the marathon production of “The Life and Adventures of Nicholas Nickleby.” 

One-time nominee Rob McClure (“Chaplin”) was the best thing in the now-closed “Honeymoon in Vegas” (his co-star Tony Danza is in the featured actor category).

Broadway vet Peter Gallagher has only contended at the Tonys once before (for his featured role in the play “Long Day’s Journey Into Night”) and headlines the acclaimed revival of “On the Twentieth Century.” However, he has missed several performances (never a good thing among the hard-working Broadway community) and he’s overshadowed by his co-star Kristin Chenoweth.

Past featured nominee Matthew Morrison (“Light in the Piazza”) drew decent notices for his performance as J.M. Barrie, the creator of “Peter Pan,” in “Finding Neverland.” But the show has been indifferently received despite the best efforts of producer Harvey Weinstein.

Among those other men making their Broadway debut, one-time Oscar nominee Ken Watanabe (“The Last Samurai”) of the Lincoln Center revival of “The King and I” is a strong candidate (Yul Brynner won a Tony for the 1951 original as well as a 1956 Oscar for the movie version), but many critics found fault with the Japanese actor’s garbled English diction.

British actor Tam Mutu crosses the pond for the first time in the title role of “Doctor Zhivago” while Corey Cott of “Gigi” originates a role on the rialto for the first time after being a replacement and understudy in “Newsies.”

Other possible nominees from shuttered shows include Michael Esper in “The Last Ship” and Saul Williams in “Holler If Ya Hear Me.” 

Tonys Best Musical Actress battle:
Kelli O’Hara vs.
Chita Rivera vs. Kristen Chenoweth

When it came to predicting the Tony Awards nominations last year, the Experts tied the Top 24 Users (those users with the best scores predicting the 2013 nominations) with an overall accuracy rate of 86.67%. Our Editors were at 80.42% while all Users averaged 67.92%. (Click on each group’s name to see their overall results from last year.)

To win, you must have the highest accuracy percentage – and maybe more than that. If more than one player has the best accuracy, the winner is the person with the highest accuracy plus most game points. So, remember to place your three super bets when making predictions. Each player gets one super bet of 500 points and two of 200 points with all the other categories worth 100 points. Strategy is key. Place those super bets wisely and they could crown you our winner.

That’s what happened when we tallied up prediction scores for last year’s Tony Awards nominations. Nine users were tied at the top with a jaw-dropping 95% accuracy. However, J F Petsche was our official winner because he scored 6,046 points (including 2,915 points for Play Revival where he had placed his 500 point bet). Compare that to second-place finisher Ted Stevenson  who scored 5,674 points (he put his 500 point bet on Musical Revival and earned 2,333 points there). 

Get started by making your own predictions for Best Actor (Musical) using our easy drag-and-drop menu found at the bottom of this post.

You can continue to update and change your predictions until the morning of the nominations announcement on April 28. Just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice. And remember to place your 500 and 200-point bets wisely. 

To enter your predictions for the other genre categories, make sure you are logged into your Gold Derby account or register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google.

After logging in, click on the “Predictions” button found at the top-right of every page. That will bring you to a list of every event currently being predicted at Gold Derby.

We are forecasting everything from the winners of the Billboard Awards and both Daytime and Primetime Emmys to the results on reality TV shows like “The Amazing Race” and “Survivor” and talent shows such as “American Idol” and “The Voice.” Click on any box to bring up that event, then scroll down to start making your predictions.

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