Tony Awards experts’ predictions: ‘Curious Incident’ will win Best Play, ‘Wolf Hall’ could spoil

In the first wave of predictions from our 10 Tony Awards Experts, eight of them think that the Brit hit “Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time” will win Best Play. And two are touting another import from the UK, “Wolf Hall: Parts 1 and 2,” to take the top prize when these awards are handed out on June 7. Nominations for the 69th annual edition of these kudos will be announced on April 28. 

Predicting “Curious Incident,” which won the Olivier in 2013, to prevail are: Entertainment Weekly’s Melissa Bernardo and Jason ClarkThom GeierAndy Humm (Gay USA), Wayman Wong (Talkin’ Broadway) and all three of us — Tom O’NeilDavid Sheward and me — here at Gold Derby. That support gives it leading odds of 17/10. 

Those backing the epic “Wolf Hall” are Harry Haun (Playbill) and Michael Musto ( That translates into odds of 14/5. 

Our Experts expect the other three nominees for Best Play to be “The Audience” (with odds of 6/1 to win) and, at 10/1 each, the Pulitzer Prize champ “Disgraced” and “Airline Highway.”

When it came to predicting the Tony Awards nominations last year, the Experts tied the Top 24 Users (those users with the best scores predicting the 2013 nominations) with an overall accuracy rate of 86.67%. Our Editors were at 80.42% while all Users averaged 67.92%. (Click on each group’s name to see their overall results from last year.)

Even before the nominations were announced last year, the collective opinion of both our Experts and Top 24 Users had foreseen that “All the Way” would win Best Play. Both groups nailed four of the five nominees for Best Play with each missing the bid by “Outside Mullingar” in favor of the snubbed “The Realistic Joneses.”

As Gold Derby Users – just like YOU – turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s vital that you give us your predictions. Your picks factor into our Users racetrack odds. These, in turn, are a key component of Gold Derby’s official (combined) odds

Make the best predictions and you could win our contest prize: $100 Amazon gift certificate and a place of honor in our famous leaderboards. But be sure to take notice of the fine points of our official contest rules HERE.  

In order to win, you must have the highest accuracy percentage – and maybe more than that. If more than one player has the best accuracy, the winner is the person with the highest accuracy plus most game points. So, remember to place your three super bets when making predictions. Each player gets one super bet of 500 points and two of 200 points with all the other categories worth 100 points. Strategy is key. Place those super bets wisely and they could crown you our winner.

That’s what happened when we tallied up prediction scores for last year’s Tony Awards nominations. Nine users were tied at the top with a jaw-dropping 95% accuracy. However, J F Petsche was our official winner because he scored 6,046 points (including 2,915 points for Play Revival where he had placed his 500 point bet). Compare that to second-place finisher Ted Stevenson  who scored 5,674 points (he put his 500 point bet on Musical Revival and earned 2,333 points there). 

Get started by making your own predictions for Best Play using our easy drag-and-drop menu found at the bottom of this post.

You can continue to update and change your predictions until the morning of the nominations announcement on April 28. Just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice. And remember to place your 500 and 200-point bets wisely. 

To enter your predictions for the other genre categories, make sure you are logged into your Gold Derby account or register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google.

After logging in, click on the “Predictions” button found at the top-right of every page. That will bring you to a list of every event currently being predicted at Gold Derby.

We are forecasting everything from the winners of the Academy of Country Music Awards and both Daytime and Primetime Emmys to the results on reality TV shows like “The Amazing Race” and “Survivor” to the body count on “The Walking Dead.” Click on any box to bring up that event, then scroll down to start making your predictions.

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