Tony Awards experts: ‘Curious Incident’ will win Best Play, ‘Wolf Hall’ could spoil

Our baker’s dozen of Experts have been busy updating their predictions since the Tony Awards nominations were announced on April 26. All 13 of us Tonywatchers think that the Brit hit “Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time” will win Best Play when these awards are handed out on June 7. We think that if any of the other nominees is to pull off an upset, it will be another import from the UK, the epic “Wolf Hall: Parts 1 and 2.”

“Curious Incident” is Simon Stephens‘s adaptation of Mark Haddon‘s bestselling novel about an autistic teenager who sets out to solve a crime. It contends for six Tony Awards in all. This kaleidiscope of sights and sounds dominated the Outer Critics Circle Awards on Monday, winning five prizes including Best Play and Best Actor (Alex Sharpas well as Direction, Lighting and Set Design.

“Wolf Hall” is based on Hilary Mantel‘s award-winning novels about the court of King Henry VIII. The RSC showcases Mike Poulton‘s adaptation with a lavish two-part staging that reaped eight Tony bids in all. 

Predicting “Curious Incident” to prevail are: Entertainment Weekly’s Melissa Bernardo and Jason ClarkThom GeierSusan Haskins (Theater Talk), Harry Haun (Playbill), Andy Humm (Gay USA), Michael Musto (, Jesse Oxfeld (Forward), Matt Windman (amNY), Wayman Wong (Talkin’ Broadway) and all three of us — Tom O’NeilDavid Sheward and me — here at Gold Derby. That support gives it leading odds of 1/20. 

None of the other three nominees snagged any first-place votes from the Experts. However, because “Wolf Hall” was ranked the highest of these also-rans, it has odds of 33/1 while “Hand to God” sits at 50/1 and the 2013 Pulitzer champ “Disgraced” is at 100/1. 

OCC Awards winners: ‘An American in Paris,’ ‘Curious Incident’ …

Gold Derby Users – just like YOU – turn out to be our smartest prognosticators. So, it’s vital that you give us your predictions. Your picks factor into our Users racetrack odds which are a key component of Gold Derby’s official (combined) odds. Make the best predictions and you could win our contest prize: a $100 Amazon gift certificate and a place of honor in our famous leaderboards. (Be sure to take notice of the finer points of our contest rules HERE.)

When it came to predicting the Tony Awards last year, the Experts tied the Top 24 Users (those users with the best scores predicting the 2013 winners) with an overall accuracy rate of 85% while our Editors were at 73%. (Click on each group’s name to see their overall results from last year.)

Even before the nominations were announced last year, the collective opinion of both our Experts and Top 24 Users had foreseen that “All the Way” would win Best Play. Both groups nailed 21 of the other races as well.

In order to win our contest, you must have the highest accuracy at predicting the winners in all 24 categories. But you may need more than that. If more than one user has the best percentage, the tie will be broken by most game points. So, remember to place your three super bets when making predictions. Each user gets one super bet of 500 points and two of 200 points with all the other categories worth 100 points. Strategy is key. Place those super bets wisely and they could crown you our winner.

You can continue to update and change your predictions until just an hour before the awards begin. Just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice. And remember to place your 500 and 200-point bets wisely. 

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After logging in, click on the “Predictions” button found at the top-right of every page. That will bring you to a list of every event currently being predicted at Gold Derby.

We are forecasting everything from the winners of the Billboard Music Awards and Emmys to the results on reality TV shows like “The Amazing Race” and “Survivor” and talent shows such as “The Voice.” Click on any box to bring up that event, then scroll down to start making your predictions.

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