Tony Awards experts: ‘An American in Paris’ will win Best Musical, ‘Fun Home’ could spoil

Our baker’s dozen of Experts have been busy updating their predictions since the Tony Awards nominations were announced on April 28. Among our 13 Tonywatchers, eight of us think that “An American in Paris” will win Best Musical when these awards are handed out on June 7. And five are touting the transfer of the off-Broadway hit “Fun Home.” Both shows reaped a leading 12 nominations for these top theater kudos.

An American in Paris” is a legit version of the 1951 Oscar-winning Best Picture MGM musical. It dominated the Outer Critics Circle Awards on Monday, winning four prizes including Best Musical, Best Actor (Robert Fairchild) and two trophies for director/choreographer Christopher Wheedon.

Fun Home” is based on cartoonist Alison Bechdel’s autobiography about growing up in small-town Pennsylvania and the effects that coming out had on her family including her closeted gay father. It was ineligible at the OCC as it had contended there last year for its acclaimed original off-Broadway run.

Predicting “An American in Paris” to prevail are: Entertainment Weekly’s Melissa Bernardo and Jason ClarkMichael Musto (, Matt Windman (amNY), Wayman Wong (Talkin’ Broadway) and all three of us — Tom O’NeilDavid Sheward and me — here at Gold Derby. That support gives it leading odds of 2/3.

Those backing “Fun Home” are: Thom Geier, Susan Haskins (Theater Talk), Harry Haun (Playbill), Andy Humm (Gay USA) and Jesse Oxfeld (Forward). That translates into odds of 13/8.

Neither of the other two nominees snagged any first-place votes from the Experts: “Something Rotten” (with odds of 50/1 to win) and, at 100/1, “The Visit.” 

OCC Awards winners: ‘An American in Paris,’ ‘Curious Incident’ …

Gold Derby Users – just like YOU – turn out to be our smartest prognosticators. So, it’s vital that you give us your predictions. Your picks factor into our Users racetrack odds which are a key component of Gold Derby’s official (combined) odds. Make the best predictions and you could win our contest prize: a $100 Amazon gift certificate and a place of honor in our famous leaderboards. (Be sure to take notice of the finer points of our contest rules HERE.)

When it came to predicting the Tony Awards last year, the Experts tied the Top 24 Users (those users with the best scores predicting the 2013 winners) with an overall accuracy rate of 85% while our Editors were at 73%. (Click on each group’s name to see their overall results from last year.)

Even before the nominations were announced last year, the collective opinion of both our Experts and Top 24 Users had foreseen that “Gentlemen’s Guide to Murder” would win Best Musical. Both groups nailed 21 of the other races as well.

In order to win our contest, you must have the highest accuracy at predicting the winners in all 24 categories. But you may need more than that. If more than one user has the best percentage, the tie will be broken by most game points. So, remember to place your three super bets when making predictions. Each user gets one super bet of 500 points and two of 200 points with all the other categories worth 100 points. Strategy is key. Place those super bets wisely and they could crown you our winner.

You can continue to update and change your predictions until just an hour before the awards begin. Just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice. And remember to place your 500 and 200-point bets wisely. 

To enter your predictions for the other categories, make sure you are logged into your Gold Derby account or register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google.

After logging in, click on the “Predictions” button found at the top-right of every page. That will bring you to a list of every event currently being predicted at Gold Derby.

We are forecasting everything from the winners of the Billboard Music Awards and Emmys to the results on reality TV shows like “The Amazing Race” and “Survivor” and talent shows such as “The Voice.” Click on any box to bring up that event, then scroll down to start making your predictions.

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