Tonys cliffhanger: Is ‘Something Rotten’ the next ‘Book of Mormon’?

Something Rotten” a musical comedy send-up of both Shakespeare and Broadway musicals, is hoping to defy the odds by opening cold on the Main Stem without an out-of-town tryout. (The show’s producers scuttled a planned Seattle run this spring to open at the St. James Theatre.)

It’s a tactic that used to be pretty common. Four of the Best Musical winners in the 1990s opened cold (“City of Angels,” “The Will Rogers Follies,” “Passion,” and “Titanic”). But more recently, producers have tended to prefer working out a shows kinks away from the blitzkrieg spotlight of Midtown Manhattan (and the endless-preview fiasco of “Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark” reinforced the soundness of that strategy).

In the last 15 years, only one cold opener has managed to take the top Tony prize: “The Book of Mormon” in 2011.

Like that show, “Rotten” has the makings of a broad, crowd-pleasing hit that’s heavy on sophomoric humor and meta-references to theater conventions. And that means it should play very well on the road — a big advantage since a sizable portion of Tony voters are touring-company producers, who may be less inclined to reward (and book) smaller, artier shows like “Fun Home” and “The Visit.”

But there’s a big obstacle to “Rotten”’s path to the podium. The reviews were wildly mixed, including qualified raves in the New York Post, Variety, and the Hollywood Reporter as well as outright pans in Newsday, the Wall Street Journal, and (crucially) the New York Times, where Ben Brantley declared that the show “dances dangerously on the line between tireless and tedious, and winds up collapsing into the second camp.”

Do you think “Something Rotten” will reap one of the four slots for Best Musical when Tony Awards nominations are announced on April 28? Make the best predictions in our Tony nominations contest and you could win a $100 Amazon gift certificate and a place of honor in our famous leaderboards.

When it came to predicting the Tony Awards nominations last year, the Experts tied the Top 24 Users (those users with the best scores predicting the 2013 nominations) with an overall accuracy rate of 86.67%. Our Editors were at 80.42% while all Users averaged 67.92%. (Click on each group’s name to see their overall results from last year.)

As Gold Derby Users – just like YOU – turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s vital that you give us your predictions. Your picks factor into our Users racetrack odds. These, in turn, are a key component of Gold Derby’s official (combined) odds

To win, you must have the highest accuracy percentage – and maybe more than that. If more than one player has the best accuracy, the winner is the person with the highest accuracy plus most game points. So, remember to place your three super bets when making predictions. Each player gets one super bet of 500 points and two of 200 points with all the other categories worth 100 points. Strategy is key. Place those super bets wisely and they could crown you our winner.

That’s what happened when we tallied up prediction scores for last year’s Tony Awards nominations. Nine users were tied at the top with a jaw-dropping 95% accuracy. However, J F Petsche was our official winner because he scored 6,046 points (including 2,915 points for Play Revival where he had placed his 500 point bet). Compare that to second-place finisher Ted Stevenson  who scored 5,674 points (he put his 500 point bet on Musical Revival and earned 2,333 points there). 

Get started by making your own predictions for Best Musical using our easy drag-and-drop menu found at the bottom of this post.

You can continue to update and change your predictions until the morning of the nominations announcement on April 28. Just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice. And remember to place your 500 and 200-point bets wisely. 

To enter your predictions for the other genre categories, make sure you are logged into your Gold Derby account or register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google.

After logging in, click on the “Predictions” button found at the top-right of every page. That will bring you to a list of every event currently being predicted at Gold Derby.

We are forecasting everything from the winners of the Billboard Music Awards and both Daytime and Primetime Emmys to the results on reality TV shows like “The Amazing Race” and “Survivor” and talent shows such as “American Idol” and “The Voice.” Click on any box to bring up that event, then scroll down to start making your predictions.

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