VMA predictions: Hozier’s ‘Take Me to Church’ ahead of Fall Out Boy for Best Rock Video

hozier fall out boy vma

Hozier‘s Grammy-nominated breakthrough hit “Take Me to Church” will also take him to the VMA winner’s circle on Sunday: he’s the frontrunner to win Best Rock Video. Is he a lock? Maybe not. Our Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best predicting last year’s VMA winners) warn of a possible upset by Fall Out Boy.

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Based on our combined predictions, Hozier does have a significant advantage. He gets 2/3 odds based on support from five out of six Editors, 17 of our Top 24 Users and 69% of all Users. This is the first VMA nomination for the Irish singer-songwriter, but that may not be a disadvantage. Lorde won this category on her first try last year for her breakthrough hit “Royals.”

Meanwhile, Fall Out Boy are nominated for the fourth time and are still looking for their first win. This year they contend for “Uma Thurman,” but while none of our Editors is predicting them to win, 14% of Users and four of our Top 24 Users say they’ll prevail, giving them 5/1 odds. Included among its supporters is BruceTsai, who had the highest score among all VMA predictors last year. Is he on the right track?

Ranked third with 8/1 odds is “Ship to Wreck” by Florence and the Machine, backed by one of our Editors and 7% of Users. And watch out for “Shut Up and Dance” by Walk the Moon, which has support from 7% of Users and two of our Top 24, giving it 10/1 odds.

Our predictors aren’t holding out much hope for Arctic Monkeys, nominated for “Why’d You Only Call Me When You’re High.” They’re underdogs with 25/1 odds; 3% of Users think they’ll pull off an upset.

Who DESERVES to win the VMAs? Discuss in our forums

gold derby scoresWho do you think will win this year’s VMA contests?

Make your predictions and you could win our contest prize (a $100 Amazon gift card), a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role among next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s VMAs).

Register/log in to your Gold Derby account so you can also compete to predict the Emmys, the TCA Awards and more.

Last year, our Editors, Users and Top 24 Users all tied with an accuracy rate of 37.50%, so we’re all hoping for redemption this time around. (Click on any of those groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

Which group will be victorious this year?

As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

Photo: Hozier performing at V Festival, 2015. Credit: Jonathan Hordle/REX

Photo: Fall Out Boy backstage in Australia, 2015. Credit: Newspix/REX

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