Taylor Swift will clean up at the MTV Video Music Awards according to our predictions, and that includes Best Female Video, which she has won twice before. A third victory would tie her with Madonna as the all-time biggest winner in this category. But to reach that milestone, she’ll have to overcome strong challenges from Nicki Minaj and Beyonce.
Swift is nominated in this race for “Blank Space” and not the video that earned her the bulk of her nominations this year, “Bad Blood,” which is up for Video of the Year. Swift previously won this category for “You Belong with Me” (2009) and “I Knew You Were Trouble” (2013) and has only lost it once, to Lady Gaga‘s “Bad Romance” in 2010. Given the blockbuster success of Swift’s album “1989” and her devoted fan base, is she unbeatable here? She tops our predictions with 8/11 odds based on support from five out of six Editors, 17 of our Top 24 Users (those folks who did the best predicting last year’s VMA winners) and 59% of all Users.
But Swift may yet be vulnerable. She faces Beyonce, who has also won twice, for “Crazy in Love” (2003) and “Naughty Girl” (2004). That means she’s also one victory away from tying Madonna’s record, and with nine total bids for Best Female Video over the years, she also ranks second to Madonna in overall nominations (the Material Girl has 12). This year, Beyonce contends for “7 11,” which is also up for Video of the Year. Will that be an advantage, or will her fan support be split between the two categories? Beyonce ranks second with 9/2 odds based on support from one Editor, two of our Top 24 and 17% of all Users.
Then there’s Minaj. She caused a stir when she blasted the VMAs on Twitter for marginalizing black, curvy women and snubbing her for Video of the Year for “Anaconda.” But they nevertheless nominated her for Female Video and Hip-Hop Video, and Minaj is a past winner in this race, for “Starships” in 2012, so we mustn’t count her out. She’s a close third in our predictions with 13/2 odds, backed by four of our Top 24 Users and 16% of all Users.
The remaining nominees are underdogs. Sia‘s “Elastic Heart” ranks fourth with 14/1 odds; one of our Top 24 thinks she’ll upset, as do 5% of all Users. And Ellie Goulding‘s “Love Me Like You Do” gets 25/1 odds with support from only 2% of Users.
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Last year, our Editors, Users and Top 24 Users all tied with an accuracy rate of 37.50%, so we’re all hoping for redemption this time around. (Click on any of those groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)
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Photo: Taylor Swift performing in Chicago, 2015. Credit: Cindy Barrymore/REX
Photo: Nicki Minaj performing on “Good Morning America,” 2015. Credit: MediaPunch/REX
Photo: Beyonce at the VMAs, 2014. Credit: Picture Perfect/REX
Photo: George Ezra performs at V Festival, 2015. Credit: Tom Oldham/REX