Could ‘Wolf Hall’ pull off another British upset for Best Miniseries Emmy?

Most of us agree that “Olive Kitteridge” is out front to win Best Limited Series at the Emmys, but I think it’s crazy that “Wolf Hall” currently ranks dead last in our predictions with 50/1 odds. It did well with eight nominations, including bids in key categories of acting, writing, directing, casting and editing. The only other nominee to sweep those fields: you guessed it, “Olive Kitteridge.”

What’s more, there’s lots of precedent for a “Wolf Hall” upset. The Emmys love British dramas, especially period pieces, so much so that they have upset American productions many times before. “The Lost Prince” defeated “Empire Falls” in 2005. “Little Dorrit” overtook “Generation Kill” in 2009. And though we knew voters loved “Downton Abbey” in 2011, we weren’t quite expecting how thoroughly it trounced “Mildred Pierce.”

And let’s not forget “Sherlock” last year. It didn’t win Best TV Movie, but it shocked rivals “The Normal Heart” and “Fargo” by winning Movie/Mini Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), Movie/Mini Supporting Actor (Martin Freeman) and Movie/Mini Writing.

Should “Olive Kitteridge” be worried? We asked our forum posters what they think of “Wolf Hall’s” chances. Read some of their comments below, and click here to join the discussion:

Ultimate Emmys heavyweight bout: Jon Hamm (‘Mad Men’) vs. everyone else

Tavish: What’s keeping me from predicting its winning: Claire Foy wasn’t nominated, and that means voters didn’t watch the entire miniseries. I’m afraid that most voters could leaning towards more broad material such as “American Crime” & “AHS: Freak Show.”

SamEckmann: “Olive Kitteridge” managed [a nomination for] Zoe Kazan, and “American Crime” surprised with both Regina King and Richard Cabral. “Wolf Hall” isn’t out of the running, but “Olive Kitteridge” appears to have more support to me. Perhaps Damian Lewis can make up for the Tonys mistake (you killed it Nathaniel Parker!) and win for playing Henry VIII?

Ryan Lapierre: Yes! I’ve been thinking this could happen since I saw it. I think it’s out front in the writing category and this is the type of series Emmy voters will chew up. I don’t think it’s far behind “Olive.”

surpriselover: I’m not sure in the Series race if “Wolf Hall” could pull it off. But after last year’s shocker in the writing category going to “Sherlock,” that’s where I think it’s big win will come.

KyleBailey: I would say the other British miniseries is a threat: “The Honorable Woman” is amazing.

Atypical: I think “Olive Kitteridge” is the frontrunner. “Wolf Hall” needed just a few more nominations to indicate wider support (like deserved nods for Claire Foy and Anton Lesser).

Experts Emmy predictions: All 32 categories

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Last year, our Experts had an accuracy rate of 58.62% when it came to predicting the Emmy winners. That score tied them with both Gold Derby’s Editors and the Top 24 Users (those two dozen folks who did the best at predicting last year’s Emmys). Our Users scored  51.72% (Click on any of these groups to see what they got right and wrong last year.)

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As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

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