BAFTA nominations: What will they tell us about Oscars?

The BAFTA nominations that will be announced on Jan. 10 could reveal a lot about the Oscar nominations due to be unveiled on Jan. 24 thanks to a significant overlap of voters — upwards of 500. While both groups canvass all their members for their picks for Best Picture, BAFTA also does the same to determine the nominees for the four acting awards.

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With several notable exceptions, the same films are in the running for recognition on both sides of the pond. However, “The Lobster” is only eligible at the Oscars, as it contended at the BAFTAs last year. Conversely, last year’s Oscar champ for Best Foreign Language Film, “Son of Saul,” is eligible at this year’s BAFTAs as is Charlie Kaufman‘s animated flick “Anomalisa.” Among the films that will not be released in time for consideration by BAFTA voters are “Elle,” “Patriot’s Day,” “Hello, My Name Is Doris,” “Other People” and “Certain Women.”

While the academy expanded its Best Picture race to 10 nominees in 2009 and then shifted to a sliding scale of between five and 10 in 2011, the BAFTAs have stuck with five. With the exceptions of 2011 when it went three for five and last year when it was off by one all of the BAFTA nominees for Best Picture since 2009 have gone on to contend at the Oscars. After previewing each Oscar Best Picture champ from 2009 to 2013 inclusive, the Brits went with “Boyhood” while the academy embraced “Birdman” in 2014 and opted for “The Revenant” over “Spotlight” last year.

Indeed, BAFTA was enamored with “The Revenant,” which won five of its eight nominations including Director (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu), Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Cinematography and Sound. That epic Western was coming off a historic victory for Inarritu at the DGA, who became the first helmer to repeat in the 67-year history of those awards, having won in 2014 for “Birdman.” However, he had been all but spurned by BAFTA for that latter film, which won only one of its 10 bids (Cinematography). So keen were British academy voters to make this up to him that “The Revenant” became the first BAFTA Best Picture champ to have been snubbed for its screenplay since “The Last Emperor” back in 1988; that one went on to win the top Oscar.

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“The Big Short” won just one of its five BAFTA bids — Best Adapted Screenplay — while “Spotlight” went one for three, claiming only Best Original Screenplay. Both films repeated in those races at the Oscars. Eventual Best Actress Oscar winner Brie Larson (“Room”) and Supporting Actor champ Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”) also prevailed here first. However, Alicia Vikander lost in lead here for “The Danish Girl” before winning in supporting at the Oscars.

In 2014, “Boyhood” was only in contention for only five BAFTAs but won three big prizes: Best Picture, Director (Richard Linklater) and Best Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette). Only Arquette went on to win an Oscar. Conversely, “Birdman” went just one for 10 at BAFTA but won four Oscars: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Cinematography. “The Grand Budapest Hotel” won five of its leading 11 BAFTA nominations: Original Screenplay, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design and Score; it repeated in all of those save screenplay. “Whiplash” went three for five by claiming Best Supporting Actor (J.K. Simmons), Editing and Sound; it also pulled off that hat trick at the Oscars. And leads Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”) and Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) got a chance to practice their Oscar acceptance speeches.

Predict the BAFTA nominations now; change them till January 9

Be sure to make your BAFTA predictionsWeigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our BAFTA odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just hours before nominations are announced on January 10 at 7:30 am GMT. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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