Oscar predictions: Can ‘Cinderella’ win Costume Design without Best Picture nomination?

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According to exclusive Gold Derby odds that are derived from the predictions made by our expert journalists, in-house staff editors and contest entrants like you, “Cinderella” is the frontrunner to win Best Costume Design at the Oscars with leading 13/10 odds. But hey, not so fast. Are we all putting too much stock into this film that didn’t even earn a Best Picture nomination?

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While it’s true that films nominated for Best Picture tend to win other awards over those that aren’t, this isn’t always the case when it comes to some of the technical categories.

Ever since the number of Best Picture nominees increased from five films to as many as 10 in 2009, we’ve noticed an interesting pattern with below-the-line victories. Every year (with the exception of last year), three craft Oscars have been awarded to films that missed out on a Best Picture bid.

That bodes well for “Cinderella’s” costumer Sandy Powell, who has won three — “The Young Victoria” (2009), “The Aviator” (2004) and “Shakespeare in Love” (1998) — of her 10 previous Oscar bids.

Powell’s rival nominees this year are Jenny Beavan (“Mad Max: Fury Road”), Paco Delgado (“The Danish Girl”), Jacqueline West (“The Revenant”) and … herself. The fifth film nominated for Best Costumes is “Carol,” which also happen to be designed by Powell.

UPDATED: Experts’ Oscars predictions in all 24 categories

While it’s true that last year’s “Interstellar” was the only film to take home a tech Oscar (Best Visual Effects) without a corresponding Best Picture bid, the previous five years all fit the unique pattern of three below-the-line trophies going to such films. Here’s the year-by-year breakdown:

2013: “The Great Gatsby” won Best Production Design and Best Costume Design; “Frozen” won Best Song.

2012: Skyfall” won Best Sound Editing (tying with “Zero Dark Thirty“) and Best Song; “Anna Karenina” won Best Costume Design.

2011: The Muppets” won Best Song; “The Iron Lady” won Best Makeup; “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” won Best Film Editing.

2010: Alice in Wonderland” won Best Art Direction and Best Costume Design; “The Wolfman” won Best Makeup.

2009: “Crazy Heart” won Best Song; “Star Trek” won Best Makeup; “The Young Victoria” won Best Costume Design.

If the pattern returns this year, we may indeed see “Cinderella” winning Best Costume Design, but what about the other two categories?

According to our combined odds, “The Hateful Eight” is a lock to win Best Score for composer Ennio Morricone despite its Best Picture snub, while “The Hunting Ground” songwriters Lady Gaga and Diane Warren can expect to take home Oscars for the song “Til It Happens To You.”

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Photo Credit: Moviestore/REX Shutterstock

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