We’re predicting 36 categories for the 2016 Primetime Emmy Awards, and nine of them will be presented this weekend during Creative Arts ceremonies held on Saturday, September 10, and Sunday, September 11. In those races, we’re expecting a big night for NBC’s long-running sketch comedy series “Saturday Night Live.”
“SNL” is nominated seven times across four categories we’re predicting, and it will win three of those races according to the combined odds of the Expert TV journalists we’ve polled, Gold Derby’s Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmy winners and all Users who make up the largest and often savviest bloc of predictors.
Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will make history as the first joint winners of Best Comedy Guest Actress. They’re nominated as a team for guest-hosting “SNL” together last December. Our predictors say they’re way ahead of their two rival nominees from “SNL”: Melissa McCarthy and Amy Schumer.
We’re also betting on Larry David to win Best Comedy Guest Actor for “SNL.” He famously portrayed presidential candidate Bernie Sanders in his episode, but David has never won an acting award despite decades in the business and 25 total Emmy nominations. His only two victories to date were for writing and producing “Seinfeld” in 1993. David competes against another “SNL” host, Tracy Morgan, who was a regular cast member from 1996-2003; he made his triumphant return to the series last fall after recovering from a near fatal car accident that took place in 2014.
“SNL” is also expected to take Best Variety Series Directing for Don Roy King‘s work on the episode hosted by Fey and Poehler. “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” won Best Variety Series Directing in 2015 as part of a sentimental sweep for Jon Stewart‘s farewell from the show, but King won for “SNL” five years in a row prior to that (2010-2014).
The only category we’re predicting “SNL” to lose is Best Variety Series Writing, which it hasn’t won since back in 2002 when Fey was a head writer. That prize is expected to go to “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” instead.
“Game of Thrones” will likely win several awards at Creative Arts, as it did last year when it dominated with a record eight victories (on its way to a overall record 12 victories, including Best Drama Series). We’re only predicting one of its many Creative Arts contests this year, but we’re betting on it there: Best Drama Guest Actor for legendary Swedish thespian Max Von Sydow. It would be the first Emmy win for Von Sydow, who has been nominated just once before: Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actor for “Red King, White Knight” back in 1990.
Ellen Burstyn is tipped to win Best Drama Guest Actress for her arc on “House of Cards” as the mother of First Lady Claire Underwood (Robin Wright). It’s Burstyn’s eighth Emmy nom, and it would be her third win.
Elsewhere, Adele is forecast to get one step closer to EGOT with a Best Variety Special victory for “Adele Live in New York City.” She already has 10 Grammys and an Oscar for writing the title song from the film “Skyfall” (2012). Adele could have scratched Emmy off her to-do list a few months ago when she was favored to receive a Daytime Emmy for Best Musical Performance for “The Today Show,” but she was upset by Rachel Platten. If Adele does prevail this weekend, she’ll be a Tony away from completing her EGOT — and she’s still only 28-years-old.
“Grease: Live” earned 10 total nominations and is the frontrunner to win Best Special Class Program, overtaking the often victorious Tony Awards telecast. And the last contest in our predictions is likely to end in a repeat: Best Reality Host to Jane Lynch (“Hollywood Game Night”) for the third year in a row. Lynch has one other Emmy victory to her name: Best Comedy Supporting Actress for “Glee” in 2010.
“Saturday Night Live”
Best Comedy Guest Actor (Larry David)
Best Comedy Guest Actress (Tina Fey and Amy Poehler)
Best Variety Series Directing
“Adele Live in New York City”
Best Variety Special
“Game of “Thrones”
Best Drama Guest Actor (Max Von Sydow)
Best Special Class Program
“Hollywood Game Night”
Best Reality Host (Jane Lynch)
“House of Cards”
Best Drama Guest Actress (Ellen Burstyn)
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”
Best Variety Series Writing
Be sure to make your Emmy predictions right here. You’ll compete to win our contest prizes for best picks — $500 (first place), $300 (second place) and $200 (third place) in Amazon gift certificates — a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Emmys). Be sure to read our contest rules.